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Leafs Dubas Philosophy- my take on what needs to happen LONG

Créé par: Britishbulldog
Équipe: 2020-21 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 18 mai 2020
Publié: 29 mai 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
******disclaimer******
Ready for a long read?? I haven't posted a team in a while and was thinking about this a couple of weeks ago and typed it up...unfortunately last week would have been my parents 61st anniversary but my mom passed away a year ago this week so I have been spending time with my dad as he grieves.

I saw the 'Was Tavares a mistake thread' while I was visiting my dad and was surprised how many points I was thinking about for the last while that were mentioned.
******/disclaimer******

I know that everyone points out the obvious solution of trading Marner, Nylander or Tavares but I don't think anyone of the Leafs management is going to consider that.

The Leafs management has committed to the concept that Dubas has sold them which is going with four star forwards and I expect they will ride it out for another four years. They also have committed to Muzzin and when they are able I suspect they will try to lock down Reilly and Andersen for a combined $14 MIL.

Salary Structure I expect: $81.439-ish MIL (Mikheyev and Clifford have to split $2.25 MIL somehow)

**THE BIG FOUR**
11.634 (Matthews)
11.000 (Tavares)
10.893 (Marner)
6.962 (Nylander)

**2 ANCHOR DMEN**
5.625 Muzzin
5.000 Rielly

**COMPETENT FILLER**
3.5 (Kerfoot or Dman)
3.4 (Johnsson or Dman)
3.2 (Kapanen or Dman)
2.25 Hyman

**CHEAP UFA VETS, ELC, ETC FORWARDS**
1 Clifford (etc)
0.7 Spezza
1.25 Engvall
1.25 Mikheyev ??
0.8 Gauthier (etc)
0.925 Barabanov

**CHEAP UFA VETS, ELC, ETC DEFENSE**
2.0 Holl
0.925 Lehtonen

**SCRATCHES**
0.775 Petan
0.7 Marincin

**GOALIES**
5.00 Andersen
1.650 Campbell

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
With the TOP HEAVY nature of the team with 4 star forwards Dubas SHOULD trade 2 middle forwards for 2 middle dmen but I don't know if he will.

Based on that expectation that he would move 2 of the forwards and get 2 dmen here's what I propose...

**Any Forward players not picked in point 1 and 4 and any Defense not used in point 3 and 4 should be moved for Defense in point 2**

FORWARDS:
Since the management has invested so heavily in 4 star forwards (Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander) the rest of the forwards has to consist of something like:
1) 2 mid-level paid players (Pick two of Hyman, Johnsson, Kapanen, or Kerfoot...might have to add Mikheyev...)
2) a couple of ELC contracts, (like Robertson, Barabanov, etc)
3) a couple of savvy but slow veterans on cheap $1 MIL or less veteran UFA contracts (like like Spezza, Clifford, Thornton, etc)
4) a couple of near league minimum contracts. ( Gauthier, Brooks, Engvall, Bracco, possibly Mikheyev??, etc)

DEFENCE
1) On defense I see they need the two anchors on first pair and second pair which we have with Rielly and Muzzin.
2) They need to add a couple of three to $4 million solid dmen. (Not news to anyone BUT this is what the Leafs need more than ANYTHING)
3) Rounded out with ELC contracts and/or near league minimum contracts. (Sandin, Liljegren, and Lehtonen on ELCs with Holl under a relatively cheap contract)
4) RFA Dermott??

GOALIES
I feel that Campbell runs out the goalie tandem for the next two years and I don't think the Leafs will move on from Andersen.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I also thought that 1) the possible work stoppage over the high escrow held from player's paychecks as well as 2) the frustration that GMs are expressing over the annual changing salary cap amount... that the league is considering fixing the salary cap at $83 or $84 million for the next 3 years no matter the revenue. I might have mis-read that though.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
2800 000 $
11 250 000 $
63 500 000 $
63 200 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
21 000 000 $
1700 000 $
Transactions
1.
TOR
  1. Cernak, Erik [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Tampa gets an offensive minded young RHD on an cheap ELC for 2 more years, a young playmaking RW buried in Toronto and a high draft pick for a defenseman they can't sign due to cap problems.
TBL
  1. Bracco, Jeremy [Droits de RFA]
  2. Liljegren, Timothy
  3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2022 (TOR)
Détails additionnels:
It hurts to lose the best RHD and RH RW in the farm system with a high pick but Cernak is a young RHD who plays a defensive game that the Leafs need.

No offense to Manson (ANA), Larsson (EDM), Murphy (CHI), etc but Cernak plays a similar game and is younger. Cernak can't fight as well as Manson but he is a willing...and awkward...combatant when needed.
2.
TOR
  1. Zadorov, Nikita [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
A tough, clean hard hitting 3rd pairing dman would be great for Toronto.

I don't think Gudas is good enough for the money he would expect, Byfuglien is going to be too expensive and is too good offensively for the role.

Colorado has the defence depth to trade Zadorov for help up front and they won't be able to protect him in the expansion draft. He hits like a freight train similar to Byfuglien and although his doesn't have ANYTHING resembling Big Buffs offensive output, Zadorov is 10 years younger and millions of $$ cheaper...which I understand is because Zadorov isn't as good as Big Buff...
COL
  1. Johnsson, Andreas
Détails additionnels:
Johnsson is a speedy offensive forward that plays with a bit of an edge. A luxury the Leafs can't keep with the 4 star forward model.

During the season I saw Colorado fans suggest this trade in the offseason and I believe it does make sense for both teams.

Leafs might have to add...
3.
TOR
  1. Choix de 4e ronde en 2020 (VAN)
  2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (VAN)
Détails additionnels:
A couple of draft picks for a good, versatile forward on a reasonable contract
VAN
  1. Kerfoot, Alexander
Détails additionnels:
Fiesty, versatile forward which is a luxury the Leafs can't afford with the 4 Star model
4.
TOR
  1. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (FLA)
Détails additionnels:
Florida gets a solid young defenceman coming off his ELC they can insert their lineup immediately without losing anyone off their roster
FLA
  1. Dermott, Travis [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
I love what Dermott brings as a player but the Leafs can't afford to keep him in the current philosophy

Instead of being traded to Florida Dermott could be added to the Johnsson/Zadorov trade maybe
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2020
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2021
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2022
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2281 500 000 $81 455 616 $0 $0 $44 384 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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11 640 250 $11 640 250 $
C
UFA - 4
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6 962 366 $6 962 366 $
AD
UFA - 4
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1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
11 000 000 $11 000 000 $
C, AG
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
10 903 000 $10 903 000 $
AD
UFA - 5
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1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
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3 200 000 $3 200 000 $
AD
UFA - 2
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
AG
UFA - 2
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925 000 $925 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
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700 000 $700 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 1
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800 000 $800 000 $
C
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 2
3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
5 625 000 $5 625 000 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 4
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2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
1 650 000 $1 650 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
925 000 $925 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
3 200 000 $3 200 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
700 000 $700 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
775 000 $775 000 $
C, AG, AD
UFA - 1

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29 mai 2020 à 20 h 18
#1
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No thank you from the avs.. no need for a middle 6 winger coming off a horrible injury
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29 mai 2020 à 20 h 30
#2
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Spezza on the 3rd line?
29 mai 2020 à 20 h 30
#3
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ah yes a big Left handed defender that can only hit and do nothing else. Just what the leafs need!
29 mai 2020 à 20 h 32
#4
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No Petan, I never want him to play a game again in the Leafs jersey.
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29 mai 2020 à 20 h 33
#5
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If Cernak would sign that, Tampa would keep him. Would rather keep Dermott over Zadorov - not sure how they can't afford Dermott but can afford Zadorov at $3.2m. Spezza at 3C isn't ideal. Re-signing Clifford would mean the Leafs lose their 2nd next year. Mikheyev contract might be an underpay.
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29 mai 2020 à 21 h 9
#6
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And then next year after we resign Anderson and Hyman you have about 2-3M left to sign 6 players to fill out the lineup. And we havent even resigned Soup or Lehtonen yet. This does not work.
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29 mai 2020 à 21 h 9
#7
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i think the avs would do that trade.

don't see any team taking kerfoot for a 2nd and 4th. with his contract in a salary dump a 3rd seems more likely.
29 mai 2020 à 22 h 42
#8
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Quoting: JeffW
No thank you from the avs.. no need for a middle 6 winger coming off a horrible injury


We will see how he is in the playoffs. I never thought he would play at a high level with the pathetic cheap shot he took to the head his 1st playoffs with the Marlies. If he can't return to form then I would agree with you. If he does return then I could see it as a possibility.

I don't know if you think Johnsson isn't a very good player though or if you think that Zadorov is a desired commodity by the Avs or other teams.
29 mai 2020 à 22 h 49
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Quoting: Random_guy159
Spezza on the 3rd line?


For sure not the most desirable player for that position but when Dubas chooses to put over $33 MIL into only 3 players there isn't a lot to go around for the rest of the forwards when the defence is so thin.

I have only seen the Penguins win a Cup with a sub par defence and elite offense but they also had a goalie get hot which Andersen has NEVER done in the playoffs for the Leafs. Andersen cost us the game against Boston in Game 7 not Gardiner...and I never liked Gardiner.
29 mai 2020 à 22 h 59
#10
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
ah yes a big Left handed defender that can only hit and do nothing else. Just what the leafs need!


He has the same offensive capabilities as Dermott and Holl but they can't play Zadorov's hard-nosed style of game IMO. That comparison means that Zadorov is currently overpaid somewhat but that's what the Leafs (Dubas) like to do.

If Lehtonen and Sandin can't play RD like other teams have had their LHD do since the beginning of hockey then we will be in trouble I guess but I was hoping we wouldn't need our 3rd pair to only succeed if they were LHD + RHD.
29 mai 2020 à 23 h 2
#11
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
No Petan, I never want him to play a game again in the Leafs jersey.


I actually agree. I was going to put Agostino but I figured Kenny deserved a real shot rather than just sit in the press box as a min league contract like I was hoping for Petan
29 mai 2020 à 23 h 17
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Quoting: Silverbug
And then next year after we resign Anderson and Hyman you have about 2-3M left to sign 6 players to fill out the lineup. And we havent even resigned Soup or Lehtonen yet. This does not work.


That was literally what I was trying to point out...I am just not as succinct as you.

This summer, next summer, the following one, etc is going to be a large turnover of players like last summer was.

With the 'Big 4' and 2 anchor Dmen with a competent Goalie tandem there is only room for 4 extra $3-$4 MIL contracts. If Dubas continues to keep those 4 contracts as forwards (Kerfoot, Johnsson, Kapanen and to a certain extent Hyman) then the rest of the forwards and 3-4 dmen will have to be ELCs or near league minimum. There is no other options.

We will lose Soup, Lehtonen, Barabanov, etc every time when it comes to re-signing. We don't even have much room to re-sign Sandin, Liljegren and Robertson if they play anywhere near their potential.
Dubas has gone on record saying he realizes he will need to fill out those positions each year with league minimum signings due to the commitment he has made to the Big 4.

As a long time Leaf fan it is disappointing how this team salary structure has been created by Dubas. I looked at Calgary, Boston, Tampa Bay, etc and thought our players would be signed to MUCH lower contracts but instead we are like Buffalo, San Jose, etc. Sorry Shanny, no home town or team first discounts here. It is everyone for them self.
29 mai 2020 à 23 h 21
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
i think the avs would do that trade.

don't see any team taking kerfoot for a 2nd and 4th. with his contract in a salary dump a 3rd seems more likely.


I didn't see it as a salary dump in the matter that it was a bad contract. I only see him, Johnsson and/or Kapanen being traded because of the HUGE commitment to the BIG 4 and how thin the Leafs defence depth is.

I would be disappointed in only getting a 3rd for a versatile forward like Kerfoot but would probably still take it I guess.
29 mai 2020 à 23 h 42
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
If Cernak would sign that, Tampa would keep him. Would rather keep Dermott over Zadorov - not sure how they can't afford Dermott but can afford Zadorov at $3.2m. Spezza at 3C isn't ideal. Re-signing Clifford would mean the Leafs lose their 2nd next year. Mikheyev contract might be an underpay.


I tried doing the math for Tampa Bay's situation and I see no way that they can keep Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak. TBay has $76.2 MIL tied up with 15 players. That gives them $5.3 MIL for the remaining 7-8 players needed. Except for Kucherov and Point, who are arguably 2 of the 3 best forwards on the team, EVERY other player making over $2 MIL has either a NTC or a NMC. Even Coburn @ $1.7 MIL has a NTC.
Crazy!

I am sure that the TBay fans would love to trade Gourde's 10 goals and $5.2 MIL contract but he has a FULL NTC until 2022. Johnson did get 14 goals for his $5 MIL FULL "no trade" NTC contract. Ouch! McDonagh did score 1 goal to kick off his "FULL no trade before Jan 16, 2026" 7 year $6.75 MIL contract as a 30 year old

The easiest to replace of the 3 RFAs would be Cernak and getting a good, younger RHD on a guaranteed low ELC I think would be desirable.
29 mai 2020 à 23 h 50
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Quoting: Britishbulldog
I tried doing the math for Tampa Bay's situation and I see no way that they can keep Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak. TBay has $76.2 MIL tied up with 15 players. That gives them $5.3 MIL for the remaining 7-8 players needed. Except for Kucherov and Point, who are arguably 2 of the 3 best forwards on the team, EVERY other player making over $2 MIL has either a NTC or a NMC. Even Coburn @ $1.7 MIL has a NTC.
Crazy!

I am sure that the TBay fans would love to trade Gourde's 10 goals and $5.2 MIL contract but he has a FULL NTC until 2022. Johnson did get 14 goals for his $5 MIL FULL "no trade" NTC contract. Ouch! McDonagh did score 1 goal to kick off his "FULL no trade before Jan 16, 2026" 7 year $6.75 MIL contract as a 30 year old

The easiest to replace of the 3 RFAs would be Cernak and getting a good, younger RHD on a guaranteed low ELC I think would be desirable.


Yes, they're in a tough spot. But any of those players could possibly waive their NTC's. If they aren't able to clear sufficient cap to keep all their RFA's, Cernak seems the unlikely one to move. Tampa is weak on RD and if he would sign this sweetheart deal, he'll be much easier to keep under the cap than Sergachev or Cirelli. He would also fetch a lesser return of the three.
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30 mai 2020 à 0 h 5
#16
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Yes, they're in a tough spot. But any of those players could possibly waive their NTC's. If they aren't able to clear sufficient cap to keep all their RFA's, Cernak seems the unlikely one to move. Tampa is weak on RD and if he would sign this sweetheart deal, he'll be much easier to keep under the cap than Sergachev or Cirelli. He would also fetch a lesser return of the three.


I am not sure of a player who has waived their NTC to help their team but I can think of various ones who refused including our beloved captain Mats Sundin. Kadri wouldn't waive for Calgary, Phaneuf wouldn't waive for the expansion draft, etc.

I was hoping you weren't going to notice the sweetheart deal after I compared Cernak to Manson @ $4.1 MIL and Larsson @ $4.2 MIL and said I liked Cernak better and then signed him to only $3.5. He really should be signed around $4.5 MIL. Any pay increase for Cernak or Mikheyev would come from the 3rd pair dmen knocking them down to 2 ELC style contracts/players. Bye-bye Zadorov and Dermott.
30 mai 2020 à 0 h 13
#17
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Quoting: Britishbulldog
I am not sure of a player who has waived their NTC to help their team but I can think of various ones who refused including our beloved captain Mats Sundin. Kadri wouldn't waive for Calgary, Phaneuf wouldn't waive for the expansion draft, etc.

I was hoping you weren't going to notice the sweetheart deal after I compared Cernak to Manson @ $4.1 MIL and Larsson @ $4.2 MIL and said I liked Cernak better and then signed him to only $3.5. He really should be signed around $4.5 MIL. Any pay increase for Cernak or Mikheyev would come from the 3rd pair dmen knocking them down to 2 ELC style contracts/players. Bye-bye Zadorov and Dermott.


Can't be sure of who waived or didn't considering the trade lists aren't disclosed to the public, but both Phaneuf and Kessel were traded and they each had some trade protection. It happens. Killorn also only has a M-NTC after July 1st.
 
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