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can someone explain how the draft lottery is going to work

Créé par: kafle22
Équipe: 2020-21 Oilers d'Edmonton
Date de création initiale: 26 mai 2020
Publié: 26 mai 2020
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26 mai 2020 à 20 h 8
#1
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If I understood everything right, the 4 best teams in each conference is 100% sure to make the playoffs, COL, VGK,DAL and STL in the west. WSH,BOS,TB and PHI in the east. 8 other teams from each conference will play each other in a BO5 series, PIT vs MTL, TOR vs CBJ, etc... the winners of those series will qualify for the "playoffs", the losers will participate in the draft lottery
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26 mai 2020 à 20 h 9
#2
wpg
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2020 Draft Lottery:
- NHL Draft Lottery #1 will contain the 7 non-playoff teams and 8 empty slots which are reserved for the 8 teams eliminated in the play-in round
- If one of the 8 empty slots wins one of the lotteries then there will be a second lottery held after the conclusion of the play-In round
- If the second lottery is required, The 8 teams eliminated in the 1st round will each have a 12.5% chance at winning the pick that was awarded to that empty slot.
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26 mai 2020 à 20 h 11
#3
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Quoting: HockeyFan989
2020 Draft Lottery:
- NHL Draft Lottery #1 will contain the 7 non-playoff teams and 8 empty slots which are reserved for the 8 teams eliminated in the play-in round
- If one of the 8 empty slots wins one of the lotteries then there will be a second lottery held after the conclusion of the play-In round
- If the second lottery is required, The 8 teams eliminated in the 1st round will each have a 12.5% chance at winning the pick that was awarded to that empty slot.


Alright thanks, but I still don't know get the need for second lottery
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26 mai 2020 à 20 h 11
#4
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Quoting: weird_flex_but_ok
If I understood everything right, the 4 best teams in each conference is 100% sure to make the playoffs, COL, VGK,DAL and STL in the west. WSH,BOS,TB and PHI in the east. 8 other teams from each conference will play each other in a BO5 series, PIT vs MTL, TOR vs CBJ, etc... the winners of those series will qualify for the "playoffs", the losers will participate in the draft lottery


Thanks
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 14
#5
wpg
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Quoting: kafle22
Alright thanks, but I still don't know get the need for second lottery


basically so they can hold the lottery before the playin round otherise they have to wait till its over
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 21
#6
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Using last year's draft as an example:
-NJD and NYR wouldn't be in the play-in round so they get 1st and 2nd.
-Chi (3rd) would be in the play-in round. So that pick would be redrawn with the 8 losers of the play-in round each having a 12.5% chance (they each get 1 ball basically) after the play-in rounds are finished.
-the rest of the non-Playoff teams draft order would be set by worst record (points %).
-the Playoff teams will be the same rules as previous drafts for their position.
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 25
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Quoting: kafle22
Alright thanks, but I still don't know get the need for second lottery


So some teams get a shot at the playoffs and a lottery pick.
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 28
#8
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What's not to understand? It's essentially the same as every year. The lottery odds for every seed are unchanged.

However since the seed 8-15 teams have yet to be decided, they're using generic placeholders "Team A" thru "Team H" to designate the "play-in" teams. If none of those placeholders win the lottery, then the teams that are eliminated in the play-in will be seeded according to points percentage. If one or more of the placeholders do get drawn in the lottery, then each of the 8 teams that were eliminated participate in a "phase 2" lottery to determine which team is "Team A" and which team is "Team B". Each of the eliminated teams have an equal chance (1 in 8, or 12.5%) of getting a specific team letter. No weight is given to any team in the phase 2 lottery based on points percentage.

So for example, if Pittsburgh, who has the highest points percentage of the play-in teams, is eliminated in the 1st round, if no placeholder teams have a ball drawn in the lottery, they will automatically get the 15th overall pick. However, if one placeholder ball is drawn, then Pittsburgh will have a 12.5% chance of getting that lottery spot, and a 87.5% chance of getting 15th overall. If two placeholder balls, then 25%/75%. If three, then 37.5%/62.5%.

Make sense?
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 31
#9
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Quoting: kafle22
Alright thanks, but I still don't know get the need for second lottery


If three teams win the lottery, and those teams are Detroit, Ottawa, and "Team A", they'll need to have another lottery to determine which of the eliminated teams is "Team A". So they'll essentially throw the 8 teams in a hat and pick one until all teams are assigned a letter (12.5% chance each). Whoever draws "Team A" gets the 3rd overall pick.

If the three lottery winners come out of the bottom seven teams, then it doesn't matter in the slightest who "Team A" was going to be.
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 35
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
If three teams win the lottery, and those teams are Detroit, Ottawa, and "Team A", they'll need to have another lottery to determine which of the eliminated teams is "Team A". So they'll essentially throw the 8 teams in a hat and pick one until all teams are assigned a letter (12.5% chance each). Whoever draws "Team A" gets the 3rd overall pick.

If the three lottery winners come out of the bottom seven teams, then it doesn't matter in the slightest who "Team A" was going to be.


Is it just me or does it seem like, if the 2nd phase of the lottery is needed, that portion should be weighted? It just doesn't seem right that if the Leafs and Canadiens are eliminated that they'd both have the same odds at the pick(s) because neither technically made the playoffs but the Canadiens were much worse in the regular season.
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26 mai 2020 à 20 h 39
#11
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Quoting: kafle22
Alright thanks, but I still don't know get the need for second lottery


there's going to be ping pong balls in the lottery machine that have question marks on them and those balls are reserved for the 8 teams that get knocked out in the "play-in" round. so if one of those question mark ping pong balls come up as the winner for the first, second, or third overall pick in the first lottery then the second lottery will determine which team that question mark represents. the second lottery will have only the eight teams that got knocked out in the "play-in" round and those teams will have equal odds to win the pick that was won originally by the question mark ping pong ball in the first lottery. sorry i hope this is right and i really hope it makes sense.
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 40
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Is it just me or does it seem like, if the 2nd phase of the lottery is needed, that portion should be weighted? It just doesn't seem right that if the Leafs and Canadiens are eliminated that they'd both have the same odds at the pick(s) because neither technically made the playoffs but the Canadiens were much worse in the regular season.


But they didn't conclude the regular season. This "play-in" is essentially replacing the "stretch run." If Montreal tore up the final 12 games of the season and Toronto took a dump, then who's to say that Montreal would not have passed Toronto in the standings if they played out all 82 games?
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26 mai 2020 à 20 h 44
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
But they didn't conclude the regular season. This "play-in" is essentially replacing the "stretch run." If Montreal tore up the final 12 games of the season and Toronto took a dump, then who's to say that Montreal would not have passed Toronto in the standings if they played out all 82 games?


Yeah, I changed my mind between making that comment and now. The bottom teams absolutely should not be in the playoffs but they were gifted a spot. Favoring them in the lottery would be dumb. They can't have it all.
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26 mai 2020 à 20 h 49
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Yeah, I changed my mind between making that comment and now. The bottom teams absolutely should not be in the playoffs but they were gifted a spot. Favoring them in the lottery would be dumb. They can't have it all.


Yes, its a mini way of balancing the unfairness of the lower seed teams getting much higher chance at playoff birth then they had at the pause
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 52
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Quoting: Bluetomorrow83
Yes, its a mini way of balancing the unfairness of the lower seed teams getting much higher chance at playoff birth then they had at the pause


Yep. They really wanted to make it more complicated than it needed to be.
26 mai 2020 à 20 h 58
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Bettman explained it well but its basically

DET 18.5%
OTT 13.5%
OTT 11.5%
LAK 9.5%
ANA 8.5%
NJD 7.5%
BUF 6.5%
Qualifying losers 3.06% for each
26 mai 2020 à 21 h 4
#17
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Yep. They really wanted to make it more complicated than it needed to be.


I think it was a needed addition even though it added complexity. PIT/EDM and kind of CAR/TOR all dropped from high percentage of making the 16 team playoffs to a 50/50 chance of making it had to give them a carrot for approving the format
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26 mai 2020 à 22 h 12
#18
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Quoting: Bluetomorrow83
I think it was a needed addition even though it added complexity. PIT/EDM and kind of CAR/TOR all dropped from high percentage of making the 16 team playoffs to a 50/50 chance of making it had to give them a carrot for approving the format


Quoting: Bluetomorrow83
Bettman explained it well but its basically

DET 18.5%
OTT 13.5%
OTT 11.5%
LAK 9.5%
ANA 8.5%
NJD 7.5%
BUF 6.5%
Qualifying losers 3.06% for each


Quoting: chloewoj
there's going to be ping pong balls in the lottery machine that have question marks on them and those balls are reserved for the 8 teams that get knocked out in the "play-in" round. so if one of those question mark ping pong balls come up as the winner for the first, second, or third overall pick in the first lottery then the second lottery will determine which team that question mark represents. the second lottery will have only the eight teams that got knocked out in the "play-in" round and those teams will have equal odds to win the pick that was won originally by the question mark ping pong ball in the first lottery. sorry i hope this is right and i really hope it makes sense.


So how far can a team such as detroit fall in the draft
26 mai 2020 à 22 h 23
#19
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Quoting: kafle22
So how far can a team such as detroit fall in the draft


they can’t fall past 4th
26 mai 2020 à 22 h 31
#20
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Quoting: chloewoj
they can’t fall past 4th


so it's kinda like before
26 mai 2020 à 22 h 35
#21
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Quoting: kafle22
so it's kinda like before


Exactly like before but now the 8 qualifying losers all have the same chance instead of the 6% through 1%
26 mai 2020 à 22 h 38
#22
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Quoting: kafle22
so it's kinda like before


it’s going to be a normal draft lottery unless one of the mystery ping pong balls wins. all the teams that didn’t make the playoffs have the same odds that they would’ve had if it was a normal playoff and lottery situation. nothing really changed for those 7 teams.
 
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