I've recently seen several AGM rosters by Rangers fans featuring Zadorov, involving various constellations of returns ranging from picks (eg. 2nd +3rd), prospects (2nd+Lias Andersson), cap dumps (Staal + Nils Lundkvist + 2nd), and roster players (eg. Buchevnich). That said, I thought I'd throw a new idea into the hat...
As things stand Rangers should draft at ~#13, and ~#23. Colorado drafts at #28. I'm curious if Rangers would accept trading down from #23 to #28, in exchange for Zadorov (with another pick included to balance the value)?
(Note that this trade is hypothetical and dependent on the draft not being held in June).
*********** DRAFT PICK VALUATION ************
For reference on trade valuation, below is some relevant information on how to value picks, from this site: http://scrimmageandstats.com/index.php/2019/06/09/trade-on-up-nhl-trade-on-draft-day/)
"In the 2018 NHL draft, we saw the Ottawa Senators trade to [the Rangers] the 22nd overall pick for the 26th and 48th 2016 picks. They decided to Slide down 4 spots to gain the 48th overall pick."
"Based on the precedence, here’s what we believe it would cost a team to move up.
To acquire a pick between 10 and 25:
- Moving up 1-2 spots = 1st round pick + 3rd round pick
- Moving up 4 to 8 spots = 1st round pick + 2nd round pick
- Teams very rarely have traded down beyond 6/7 ranks."
*************** PROPOSAL ********************
Based on the precedence discussed above, moving down 5 spots (from #23 to #28) should cost somewhere in the vicinity of a 1st + 2nd.
Now, most would agree that Zadorov has a value of roughly a 2nd + 3rd, a valuation for Zadorov that would effectively make #28 + Zadorov equivalent to #28 + 2nd + 3rd. Compared to the 1st + 2nd package typically required to move up 4-8 spots that would be an overpayment of a 3rd.
That said, if Rangers send a 3rd rounder back to Colorado, then the trade would be perfectly balanced, as #23 + 3rd for #28 and Zadorov. Or in other words, #23 + 3rd for #28 + 2nd + 3rd.... whereby the 3rd's cancel out and the trade is essentially #23 for #28 + 2nd, which is right in line with historical draft trades as discussed above.
************ LOGIC FOR COLORADO **************
There will be plenty of good players available at #28, so I wouldn't be desperate to trade up. However, Colorado already has a deep prospect pool and if we can consolidate assets to move up and grab a player with higher upside it might be worth it. For example, if a player like Jarvis, Mercer, Gunler, Perreault, or Schneider are available at #23 it would be nice to trade up and grab one of them.
Zadorov is expendable and is likely getting traded for futures regardless, so we may as well maximise our chances of getting a good player by using him to move up in the 1st instead of settling for a 2nd + 3rd return. Getting an extra 3rd rounder back in this trade would also enable us to pick a good goalie prospect like Joel Blomqvist or Commesso instead of rolling the dice on a lesser goalie in the 7th round again.
*********** LOGIC FOR RANGERS ******************
Rangers will get their favourite player at #13, and by trading down from #23 to #28 they would also be able to pick a very good prospect due to the draft being deep. For their trouble they add Zadorov who is a huge and physical shutdown defenseman. Rangers have numerous LHD prospects but they are mostly unproven or still too young. Zadorov would be an upgrade on Smith/Staal, and give Rangers a physical monster on the blueline to pair with their offensive RHD's (Fox/DeAngelo). Rangers have an extra 3rd rounder from Dallas which they can use to balance the trade.
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With that all said, is this a trade Rangers fans would make?
Yeah that's an easy yes from NYR. They will likely take Jack Quinn with their pick (hopefully) and considering we got rid of skjei for that pick getting back Zadorov for a couple spots is good to me!
Initial thoughts It’s a slam dunk for the Rangers a no for Avs. 2nd thought it just might work, say someone like Guhle, Zary, or Sanderson drops for some reason that’s a nice pick, it would clear the roster spot needed for Byram because honestly Cole is a better partner for a rookie stud than Z. Plus Z the fashionista in NY would worth doing almost just for entertainment value alone, but it does put him in the opposite conference which I would be good with. It would definitely have to be a draft day deal with the somebody the Avs really wanted to draft but I could see it happening.
Initial thoughts It’s a slam dunk for the Rangers a no for Avs. 2nd thought it just might work, say someone like Guhle, Zary, or Sanderson drops for some reason that’s a nice pick, it would clear the roster spot needed for Byram because honestly Cole is a better partner for a rookie stud than Z. Plus Z the fashionista in NY would worth doing almost just for entertainment value alone, but it does put him in the opposite conference which I would be good with. It would definitely have to be a draft day deal with the somebody the Avs really wanted to draft but I could see it happening.
Yeah, a trade like this would be completely contingent on there being a player available at #23 who's worth trading up for, as I mentioned in the description (perhaps I didn't emphasise it enough though):
"There will be plenty of good players available at #28, so I wouldn't be desperate to trade up. However, Colorado already has a deep prospect pool and if we can consolidate assets to move up and grab a player with higher upside it might be worth it. For example, if a player like Jarvis, Mercer, Gunler, Perreault, or Schneider are available at #23 it would be nice to trade up and grab one of them."
If there's no player we feel strongly about though then I'd swerve this idea, and instead just stick with our #28 and trade Zadorov for a 2nd + 3rd straight up, whereby we could use the 2nd to select a reasonably good prospect too.
As you say, it would be ideal to move Zadorov to the east. His hits and social media presence would certainly be very popular with Rangers fans so I could see him fitting well there.
His QO last year was $3.2m which was what he got on a 1 year contract. He hasn't really taken a big step this season, and that, combined with the flat cap, probably means that he'll get no more than like $3.5-4m, depending on term. This is his last year as a RFA so you'll want to buy a few UFA years if you acquire him; say, 3-4 years. My guess would be that he signs for $3.75 x 4 years or something thereabouts.
His QO last year was $3.2m which was what he got on a 1 year contract. He hasn't really taken a big step this season, and that, combined with the flat cap, probably means that he'll get no more than like $3.5-4m, depending on term. This is his last year as a RFA so you'll want to buy a few UFA years if you acquire him; say, 3-4 years. My guess would be that he signs for $3.75 x 4 years or something thereabouts.
thanks! the trade value is very good for the rangers and the rangers do need a shutdown LD. idk how they are going to fit him in the cap though. also our coach on defense (RUff) hates russians for some reason lol.
thanks! the trade value is very good for the rangers and the rangers do need a shutdown LD. idk how they are going to fit him in the cap though. also our coach on defense (RUff) hates russians for some reason lol.
Honestly, if you trade zadorov it's probably better to send him to the east.. but for the upgrade of the pick it's only 5 spots... which would be fine if they had their eye on someone who dropped in the draft, otherwise 5 spots doesnt seem like enough for big Z
Honestly, if you trade zadorov it's probably better to send him to the east.. but for the upgrade of the pick it's only 5 spots... which would be fine if they had their eye on someone who dropped in the draft, otherwise 5 spots doesnt seem like enough for big Z
Yes of course the trade would only happen if there was someone dropping who they liked.
It would not just be Zadorov for 5 spots though, as we'd also return a 3rd rounder.
Meh, anything below a 2nd rounder doesnt do anything for me..
It's not the 3rd rounder that does it, it's the fact that you get someone like Schneider or Perreault who have really high upside, rather than one of the many borderline 1st/early 2nd's who are long-shots to be impact players.