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Why Manson is over rated detailed PLEASE READ TOR ACGM

Créé par: firezfurx
Équipe: 2020-21 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 7 mai 2020
Publié: 7 mai 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
I compare him to Severson, someone with relatively equal value

WOULD NOT TRADE FOR MANSON JUST POINTING OUT HIS VALUE
Transactions
1.
TOR
ANA
  1. Kerfoot, Alexander
  2. Liljegren, Timothy
  3. Choix de 4e ronde en 2020 (TOR)
Détails additionnels:
For me the main problem with Manson is how over rated he is. He should be worth Kapanen 1-for-1, not the ransoms that Anaheim fans demand.

Offensive value:
Offensive production is not why people want Manson, but even if it isn't a problem Toronto needs to address they should still continue to improve it with the likely loss of Johnsson/Kapanen this offseason. Before the end of the season, Manson was on track for 15 points, exactly 1/3 the points Severson was on track for. This means that Manson needs to be able to stop 30 goals that Severson wouldn't have been able to for them to have the same impact on the team. He did have one great, and I mean GREAT year a while ago with the Ducks where he almost had Severson-like production, but it's been a while. Manson has an offensive point share of -0.2, meaning if he had been replaced by your average NHL defense men he would've been better offensively for the team. Remember that Severson had an OPS of 2.0, a staggering 2.2 points ahead of Manson. But this obviously isn't Mansons strong suit, so it's unfair to critique him on this.

Defensive Value:
This is where people drastically over value Manson. People like to think of Manson as this Pesce-like defensive stud, which simply isn't as true as many believe. Manson had a DPS of 1.6, which puts him in 5th on the ducks, and 5th for DMen on the ducks. Remember Severson was a 2.4, a full 0.8 ahead. However, Manson's work may not be interpreted well by statistics so lets look at his hits and blocked shots. This year, Manson had 65 blocked shots and 113 hits. More hits, less blocked shots then Severson. Manson is also 6'3, and is a great hard-hitting guy in his own end. However, did it translate into actual defensive value? Not really.
Overall:
Corsica currently has Manson ranked 96th among defensemen. There is likely a slight biased of his limited scoring, but that shouldn't be a large enough factor to drop him from 33 (What Severson is ranked) to 96. Manson is definitely a good defensive presence. However, his limited offensive skills and his general overrated-ness makes Severson the much more attractive choice
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7 mai 2020 à 23 h 52
#1
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If he's overrated, then don't trade for him. Problem solved.
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7 mai 2020 à 23 h 54
#2
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
If he's overrated, then don't trade for him. Problem solved.


I was just pointing out how much he would cost lol, would much rather trade for Severson
7 mai 2020 à 23 h 56
#3
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The biggest reason why Ducks fans want a high bargain for Manson is the fact that they're lacking RHDs. Manson is their only NHL level RHD. The only way you'd sell the player of your weakest position is when you get a load of value in exchange. All the Johnsson+Dermott or Kerfoot+Johnsson offers are lacking in that department - ANA just doesn't need these assets.

What they need is another RHD or a good RHD prospect.

That trade you've put there, Kerfoot+Liljegren+4th, is a pretty good trade idea. Problem is that Ducks doesn't need Kerfoot. They have Getzlaf, Rakell, Henrique, Steel, Rowney, Backes and many other centers that can also play LW. Kerfoot does not benefit them in the slightest. No mid-6 forward will, they have more than enough of those.
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7 mai 2020 à 23 h 58
#4
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Quoting: justaBoss
The biggest reason why Ducks fans want a high bargain for Manson is the fact that they're lacking RHDs. Manson is their only NHL level RHD. The only way you'd sell the player of your weakest position is when you get a load of value in exchange. All the Johnsson+Dermott or Kerfoot+Johnsson offers are lacking in that department - ANA just doesn't need these assets.

What they need is another RHD or a good RHD prospect.

That trade you've put there, Kerfoot+Liljegren+4th, is a pretty good trade idea. Problem is that Ducks doesn't need Kerfoot. They have Getzlaf, Rakell, Henrique, Steel, Rowney, Backes and many other centers that can also play LW. Kerfoot does not benefit them in the slightest. No mid-6 forward will, they have more than enough of those.


I was just pointing out what Anaheim wants not the trade I'd make... no way I'd trade for Manson he is literally Zaitsev imo
7 mai 2020 à 23 h 58
#5
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Quoting: justaBoss
The biggest reason why Ducks fans want a high bargain for Manson is the fact that they're lacking RHDs. Manson is their only NHL level RHD. The only way you'd sell the player of your weakest position is when you get a load of value in exchange. All the Johnsson+Dermott or Kerfoot+Johnsson offers are lacking in that department - ANA just doesn't need these assets.

What they need is another RHD or a good RHD prospect.

That trade you've put there, Kerfoot+Liljegren+4th, is a pretty good trade idea. Problem is that Ducks doesn't need Kerfoot. They have Getzlaf, Rakell, Henrique, Steel, Rowney, Backes and many other centers that can also play LW. Kerfoot does not benefit them in the slightest. No mid-6 forward will, they have more than enough of those.


I'll send you Montour for Guhle and a 1st.
8 mai 2020 à 0 h 3
#6
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Quoting: firezfurx
I was just pointing out what Anaheim wants not the trade I'd make... no way I'd trade for Manson he is literally Zaitsev imo


Imo he's better.

And you ain't getting him for cheaper than that.
8 mai 2020 à 0 h 4
#7
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Quoting: Adambuffalo
I'll send you Montour for Guhle and a 1st.


They've been down this route once before, no? laugh
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8 mai 2020 à 0 h 16
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I don't think you understand the concept of being overrated

No one is claiming Manson is amazing, and you say people think he's Pesce like, I've been on this site for almost 2 years and I have not once seen that comparison made. A realistic trade ask is Liljegren + a 2nd if you think that's a kings ransom you need to re-evaluate

Liljegren is a B level prospect that and a second in return for Manson who is still a steady 2nd pairing guy on a decent contract is more than fair

It is a horrible trade fit though because both teams are in dire need of RHD.

Ducks don't move Manson unless a good young RHD + comes back (The plus varies based on the player coming back to ANA) in Liljegren's case a second is more than fair (has been established by both Leaf and Ducks fans.)

At the same time both fan bases (on here) realize it is a bad trade fit and I even think the Leafs shouldn't give up Liljegren + seeing how badly they need RD as well

But you need to realize any team dealing from a position of weakness (in this case ANA and RHD) would need an inflated value to deal from that position. This is not just the case for Manson but the case for any team and any player that fit that criteria

In essence the only RHD the leafs have that would fit what the Ducks would ask in return is Liljegren, a move that Toronto shouldn't make, but anything else doesn't make sense for the Ducks to do.
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8 mai 2020 à 0 h 25
#9
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It makes no sense why Anaheim wants to keep him but imo severson is better and would cost less.
8 mai 2020 à 0 h 29
#10
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Another leaf fan claiming players of another team are overrated.
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8 mai 2020 à 0 h 31
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Quoting: Salzy
I don't think you understand the concept of being overrated

No one is claiming Manson is amazing, and you say people think he's Pesce like, I've been on this site for almost 2 years and I have not once seen that comparison made. A realistic trade ask is Liljegren + a 2nd if you think that's a kings ransom you need to re-evaluate

Liljegren is a B level prospect that and a second in return for Manson who is still a steady 2nd pairing guy on a decent contract is more than fair

It is a horrible trade fit though because both teams are in dire need of RHD.

Ducks don't move Manson unless a good young RHD + comes back (The plus varies based on the player coming back to ANA) in Liljegren's case a second is more than fair (has been established by both Leaf and Ducks fans.)

At the same time both fan bases (on here) realize it is a bad trade fit and I even think the Leafs shouldn't give up Liljegren + seeing how badly they need RD as well

But you need to realize any team dealing from a position of weakness (in this case ANA and RHD) would need an inflated value to deal from that position. This is not just the case for Manson but the case for any team and any player that fit that criteria

In essence the only RHD the leafs have that would fit what the Ducks would ask in return is Liljegren, a move that Toronto shouldn't make, but anything else doesn't make sense for the Ducks to do.


Lily + a 2nd is a fair trade for Manson.
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8 mai 2020 à 0 h 31
#12
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One of the two players is overrated... You picked the wrong one... Severson was decent at preventing shots this year basically average at preventing quality chances this year, and below average offensively, his 3 yr sample is even worse lol, a bit above average at preventing shots, but below average at preventing quality chances, yet he's treated as this defensive god
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8 mai 2020 à 0 h 32
#13
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How cheap do people think Severson would be?? Especially if Tor wants retention. NJ lacks defensemen.
8 mai 2020 à 0 h 32
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Quoting: Jack_
It makes no sense why Anaheim wants to keep him but imo severson is better and would cost less.


Bc ANA will be ready to compete before they have another RHD nearly as good as Manson... But we've argued this before, let's not do it again...
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8 mai 2020 à 0 h 49
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Quoting: Salzy
I don't think you understand the concept of being overrated

No one is claiming Manson is amazing, and you say people think he's Pesce like, I've been on this site for almost 2 years and I have not once seen that comparison made. A realistic trade ask is Liljegren + a 2nd if you think that's a kings ransom you need to re-evaluate

Liljegren is a B level prospect that and a second in return for Manson who is still a steady 2nd pairing guy on a decent contract is more than fair

It is a horrible trade fit though because both teams are in dire need of RHD.

Ducks don't move Manson unless a good young RHD + comes back (The plus varies based on the player coming back to ANA) in Liljegren's case a second is more than fair (has been established by both Leaf and Ducks fans.)

At the same time both fan bases (on here) realize it is a bad trade fit and I even think the Leafs shouldn't give up Liljegren + seeing how badly they need RD as well

But you need to realize any team dealing from a position of weakness (in this case ANA and RHD) would need an inflated value to deal from that position. This is not just the case for Manson but the case for any team and any player that fit that criteria

In essence the only RHD the leafs have that would fit what the Ducks would ask in return is Liljegren, a move that Toronto shouldn't make, but anything else doesn't make sense for the Ducks to do.


Yes but Manson isn't an asset Toronto should chase. Justin Holl is a similar player when it comes to all-around play. Severson is what we need, no Manson. I would give you a 2nd and Dermott, but of course I'm incredibly biased as I just spent an hour analyzing his game.
8 mai 2020 à 0 h 50
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Quoting: Riley816
How cheap do people think Severson would be?? Especially if Tor wants retention. NJ lacks defensemen.


Kapanen+Dermott+Bracco (B- prospect, Bubble-player)+4th for 1.25m retained. We have gone over this.
8 mai 2020 à 0 h 51
#17
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Quoting: Salzy
I don't think you understand the concept of being overrated

No one is claiming Manson is amazing, and you say people think he's Pesce like, I've been on this site for almost 2 years and I have not once seen that comparison made. A realistic trade ask is Liljegren + a 2nd if you think that's a kings ransom you need to re-evaluate

Liljegren is a B level prospect that and a second in return for Manson who is still a steady 2nd pairing guy on a decent contract is more than fair

It is a horrible trade fit though because both teams are in dire need of RHD.

Ducks don't move Manson unless a good young RHD + comes back (The plus varies based on the player coming back to ANA) in Liljegren's case a second is more than fair (has been established by both Leaf and Ducks fans.)

At the same time both fan bases (on here) realize it is a bad trade fit and I even think the Leafs shouldn't give up Liljegren + seeing how badly they need RD as well

But you need to realize any team dealing from a position of weakness (in this case ANA and RHD) would need an inflated value to deal from that position. This is not just the case for Manson but the case for any team and any player that fit that criteria

In essence the only RHD the leafs have that would fit what the Ducks would ask in return is Liljegren, a move that Toronto shouldn't make, but anything else doesn't make sense for the Ducks to do.


This is the perfect explanation.

Let me add one more thought: since before William Nylander's holdout, people have been debating whether Nylander for Brett Pesce straight up is fair and if not, what Carolina would have to add. There is literally NO Anaheim fan (that I've ever seen on this site) who thinks that Nylander and Manson should be in the same discussion. So please don't say that we think Pesce and Manson are equivalent. That's just setting up a straw man.
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8 mai 2020 à 0 h 59
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Quoting: AFOX10900
One of the two players is overrated... You picked the wrong one... Severson was decent at preventing shots this year basically average at preventing quality chances this year, and below average offensively, his 3 yr sample is even worse lol, a bit above average at preventing shots, but below average at preventing quality chances, yet he's treated as this defensive god


Manson is better defensively, or at least similar. I understand. I explained it. His DPS is the second highest on NJ, and considerably higher then Manson. However I understand Manson isn't represented by advanced stats well. His CF is the second highest on NJ, and his CA is among the lowest. And although the % is negative NJ is a bad team. Severson stops scoring oppertunities, don't try and argue me on that topic. Severson IS NOT BELOW AVERAGE OFFENSIVELY!!! He was on track for 45 points, which is fairly consistent with last year. He was only shooting a 7%, so he wasn't getting lucky either. He had the 6th highest OPS on NJ as a defencemen.
8 mai 2020 à 1 h 1
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Quoting: firezfurx
Kapanen+Dermott+Bracco (B- prospect, Bubble-player)+4th for 1.25m retained. We have gone over this.


Bracco and a 4th do nothing for them. Substitute Look even and I'm sure they'd make the trade...
8 mai 2020 à 1 h 2
#20
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Quoting: Riley816
Bracco and a 4th do nothing for them. Substitute Look even and I'm sure they'd make the trade...


wdym substitute look even?
8 mai 2020 à 1 h 5
#21
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This is a good way to start a fire. I don't think people overrate him in general, Ducks fans just want a young Dman coming back in any Manson trade (i.e Liljegren). I personally disagree with that viewpoint, but most of the trade asks from the Ducks side of this are pretty reasonable. In fact, the trade that you listed above seems like a bigger return than the norm (Manson for Lily + a pick).
8 mai 2020 à 1 h 28
#22
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What ransoms are Ducks fans asking for? Liljegren + like a 2nd is literally the ask
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8 mai 2020 à 1 h 49
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
What ransoms are Ducks fans asking for? Liljegren + like a 2nd is literally the ask


Yup. Too much imo
8 mai 2020 à 1 h 54
#24
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Quoting: AFOX10900
Bc ANA will be ready to compete before they have another RHD nearly as good as Manson... But we've argued this before, let's not do it again...


By the time the ducks will be good again he will be 31 and up for a new contract that he will want term on. Does giving a physical defenseman a long term contract sound like a good idea to you?

If they need him so much and are sure he wants to be there they could just resign him as a ufa. Not getting assets for a depreciation player who doesnt help your team at all right now is pointless and bad asset management.

Choosing to keep a guy that hurts your odds at getting a lottery pick so you can keep him long term instead of getting premium assets for him, getting a higher pick in the draft and still getting the player once they need him again is the smartest thing to do and it isnt even close
8 mai 2020 à 2 h 9
#25
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Quoting: firezfurx
Yup. Too much imo


Thats less then Kapanen 1 for 1, which ANA has zero interest in. Its less then Muzzin cost you, which makes sense since you got him at the TDL with a year left under contract. That is a complete fair deal for a non-rental top pairing defensive dman
 
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