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Conservative Offseason just trimming around the edges

Créé par: Richard88
Équipe: 2020-21 Avalanche du Colorado
Date de création initiale: 7 mai 2020
Publié: 7 mai 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
It's a quiet offseason for Sakic as he mainly resigns our own players, and trades away those deemed to be surplus for futures.

Draft selections:
- #28 pick: Best RHD available at 28 - Schneider/Barron/Grans.
- #85 pick: High-ceiling forward.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
45 000 000 $
33 000 000 $
32 250 000 $
1900 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
44 000 000 $
Transactions
1.
COL
  1. Robertson, Matthew
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2021 (NYR)
Détails additionnels:
Due to the draft being held in June, Zadorov gets traded for a recent prospect and 2021 3rd instead of 2020 2nd + 3rd.
NYR
  1. Zadorov, Nikita [Droits de RFA]
2.
COL
  1. Choix de 2e ronde en 2021 (FLA)
  2. Choix de 3e ronde en 2021 (FLA)
FLA
  1. Jost, Tyson [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Florida could lose Hoffman, Dadonov, and Haula to UFA and reportedly want to cut costs. Jost is a young and cost-efficient replacement for Haula with 2C upside if given the opportunity. He won't get that opportunity on a deep Colorado team but on Florida he would.
3.
COL
  1. Choix de 5e ronde en 2021 (EDM)
OTT
  1. Kamenev, Vladislav [Droits de RFA]
Détails additionnels:
Buy-low trade addition for a player who needs an opportunity to showcase his 3C upside.
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2020
Logo de COL
Logo de TOR
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de FLA
Logo de COL
2021
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de FLA
Logo de COL
Logo de NYR
Logo de FLA
Logo de COL
Logo de EDM
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
2022
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
Logo de COL
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2281 500 000 $75 968 095 $0 $5 425 000 $5 531 905 $

Formation

Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
5 571 429 $5 571 429 $
AG, C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
6 300 000 $6 300 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
9 250 000 $9 250 000 $
AD, C
UFA - 5
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
4 000 000 $4 000 000 $
AG, AD, C
UFA - 2
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
3 900 000 $3 900 000 $
AD
UFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
2 850 000 $2 850 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
1 800 000 $1 800 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance425 000 $$425K)
AD
RFA - 3
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
880 833 $880 833 $ (Bonis de performance2 500 000 $$2M)
DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
3 333 333 $3 333 333 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
6 000 000 $6 000 000 $
DD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 7
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
3 450 000 $3 450 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance2 500 000 $$2M)
DG/DD
RFA - 3
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
900 000 $900 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
Logo de Avalanche du Colorado
725 000 $725 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 2

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7 mai 2020 à 18 h 8
#1
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If you're keeping Namestnikov, I highly doubt he is gonna be $4 million a year. Could save yourself about $1-1.25 million there depending on term. And 4 years for that track record is risky imo. Be further ahead to keep Jost for some similar production.
7 mai 2020 à 18 h 16
#2
Banni
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Everything here looks pretty good to me. I think you did a solid job
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7 mai 2020 à 18 h 34
#3
retired
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zadorov's trade value and graves salary seem a little high. everything else looks good.
7 mai 2020 à 18 h 49
#4
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lol Rangers decline. Drop Robertson and the value is in the ballpark.
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 5
#5
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Quoting: Sagecoll
lol Rangers decline. Drop Robertson and the value is in the ballpark.

You’re not getting Zadorov for a 3rd, just look at the rental market for legit D-men at the deadline. Regardless if the draft is being held in June teams won’t be able to trade players.
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 9
#6
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I think this is generally along the lines of what happens in the off season. I like Namestikov but 4yrs is to much term to roll the dice on. We’ve discussed our differing positions on the term for some of the RFA’s.
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 18
#7
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Quoting: Xqb15
You’re not getting Zadorov for a 3rd, just look at the rental market for legit D-men at the deadline. Regardless if the draft is being held in June teams won’t be able to trade players.


Right. But you're also not getting Robertson alone for Zadorov...Rykov or Hajek maybe

I'd put Zadorov at less valuable than both Colin Miller and Olli Maatta at the time of their trades. The main piece will be a 3rd. What you add to that is flexible.
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 23
#8
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Right. But you're also not getting Robertson alone for Zadorov...Rykov or Hajek maybe

I'd put Zadorov at less valuable than both Colin Miller and Olli Maatta at the time of their trades. The main piece will be a 3rd. What you add to that is flexible.


I’d put his value ahead of those guys but I get he is a polarizing guy because he has stretches where he looks all world, and then he makes a mistake and Bednar benches him. He is definitely Bednar’s whipping boy and I think that has affected his value.
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 32
#9
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Quoting: Xqb15
I’d put his value ahead of those guys but I get he is a polarizing guy because he has stretches where he looks all world, and then he makes a mistake and Bednar benches him. He is definitely Bednar’s whipping boy and I think that has affected his value.


Gotcha, yeah I think him being pretty terrible this season has affected his value more than anything. The on-ice metrics have him really no where near Miller or Maatta at the time of their trades.

I mean it's not really close:

maatta
zadorov
colin-miller

So yeah probably a 3rd?
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 36
#10
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Gotcha, yeah I think him being pretty terrible this season has affected his value more than anything. The on-ice metrics have him really no where near Miller or Maatta at the time of their trades.

I mean it's not really close:

maatta
zadorov
colin-miller

So yeah probably a 3rd?


Is that for this year and if so why is Miller listed with VGK?
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 38
#11
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Quoting: Xqb15
I’d put his value ahead of those guys but I get he is a polarizing guy because he has stretches where he looks all world, and then he makes a mistake and Bednar benches him. He is definitely Bednar’s whipping boy and I think that has affected his value.


how is Zadorov on the pk? was he used more on the 2nd pair or 3rd pair for you guys? thanks
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 38
#12
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Quoting: Xqb15
Is that for this year and if so why is Miller listed with VGK?


It's for the year they were traded, so for Miller and Maatta that's last year and this year for Zadorov. Obviously wouldn't make sense to evaluate Miller or Maatta's trade haul using their post-trade performance.
7 mai 2020 à 19 h 44
#13
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Quoting: Sagecoll
It's for the year they were traded, so for Miller and Maatta that's last year and this year for Zadorov. Obviously wouldn't make sense to evaluate Miller or Maatta's trade haul using their post-trade performance.


Gotcha, but the one thing to take into account especially in xGF/60 and xGA/60 is zone starts and Zadorov starts are significantly more in the D-zone especially taking into account the other 2’s pre-trade starts. So those stats also reflect Zadorov’s 2016-17 season when the Avs weren’t just epically bad but unlucky?
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7 mai 2020 à 19 h 48
#14
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Quoting: gregory_papas
how is Zadorov on the pk? was he used more on the 2nd pair or 3rd pair for you guys? thanks


For me he was ok on the PK, but I think the Avs PK scheme (asinine as heck and passive) influenced that a bit. He played up and down the line up, some games he was tasked with specifically going against guys like Kane and MacDavid and played great, then he would be on the 3rd pairing and couldn’t stop Colton Sissons from looking like Sidney Crosby, then get benched. Like I said he was definitely Bednar’s whipping boy.
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7 mai 2020 à 19 h 52
#15
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Quoting: Xqb15
Gotcha, but the one thing to take into account especially in xGF/60 and xGA/60 is zone starts and Zadorov starts are significantly more in the D-zone especially taking into account the other 2’s pre-trade starts. So those stats also reflect Zadorov’s 2016-17 season when the Avs weren’t just epically bad but unlucky?


Those are RAPM numbers, Not the raw xGF numbers

RAPM metrics adjust for
1) Zone Starts
2) Score
3) Quality of Competition

and more....

So the stats show that Zadorov is league average defensively with very below average offense across the board. Whereas Maatta is slightly above average at both ends and Miller is a VERY STRONG 2way dman.
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8 mai 2020 à 10 h 7
#16
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John 3 16
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
zadorov's trade value and graves salary seem a little high. everything else looks good.

Thanks for commenting.

Usually when doing AGM's I put Graves' caphit at $2.75m for 3 years. I think his range is $2.5m/2years or $2.75m/3 years. But for some reason I was feeling quite generous this time around so I went with $3m.

Zadorov should fetch a 2nd + 3rd, or if it's a high 2nd then 2nd + 4th. As such I targeted a prospect who was selected in the 2nd round recently as that would be roughly equivalent.
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8 mai 2020 à 10 h 11
#17
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Sagecoll
lol Rangers decline. Drop Robertson and the value is in the ballpark.

The consensus among Avs fans and other team's fans is that a 2nd + 3rd is fair value for Zadorov.

Quoting: Xqb15
You’re not getting Zadorov for a 3rd, just look at the rental market for legit D-men at the deadline. Regardless if the draft is being held in June teams won’t be able to trade players.

I specifically structured the trades to include picks in 2021 rather than 2020 due to the draft likely being in June. A recent 2nd round prospect and a 2021 3rd seems equivalent to the 2nd + 3rd return Zadorov likely brings.
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8 mai 2020 à 10 h 32
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Quoting: Richard88
The consensus among Avs fans and other team's fans is that a 2nd + 3rd is fair value for Zadorov.


I specifically structured the trades to include picks in 2021 rather than 2020 due to the draft likely being in June. A recent 2nd round prospect and a 2021 3rd seems equivalent to the 2nd + 3rd return Zadorov likely brings.



Yeah that's not really my concern....I'm just showing what players on-ice contribution actually is and how that's been equated with previous trades and then we construct a "value". What the fanbase thinks is "fair" is frankly kinda irrelevant.

I would agree that Zadorov *was* worth a 2nd and 3rd at one point maybe a season or 2 ago. But no not anymore. And I'm not sure if just using draft position as a basis for player value now post draft is the wisest thing to do. Ask Kings fans if they think a 2nd and Kaliyev are interchangeable value-wise....
8 mai 2020 à 10 h 40
#19
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Right. But you're also not getting Robertson alone for Zadorov...Rykov or Hajek maybe

I'd put Zadorov at less valuable than both Colin Miller and Olli Maatta at the time of their trades. The main piece will be a 3rd. What you add to that is flexible.

Quoting: Xqb15
I’d put his value ahead of those guys but I get he is a polarizing guy because he has stretches where he looks all world, and then he makes a mistake and Bednar benches him. He is definitely Bednar’s whipping boy and I think that has affected his value.

Zadorov brings something that those other guys don't, and that's the capacity to change games and even playoff series with huge hits.

The reason I went with Robertson from Rangers' group of LHD prospects is due to the development timeline. Colorado are set at LHD for the next 2-3 years with Girard/Byram/Graves as Graves should sign for 2-3 years and then cash in as an UFA. As such, any LHD prospect we acquire would ideally be ready in 2-3 years time rather than before then. As a 2019 draftee Robertson fits that timeline much better than Rykov or Hajek.

Of your D prospects (all listed below) I figure that you won't want to give up on Miller or Lundkvist as they are recent 1st rounders. I don't know a lot about Jones, but I guess that if we're moving Zadorov for a prospect we'd want to aim a bit higher than someone selected 68th. If there's no trade to be made with Rangers we could move to another team, perhaps try to get Kolyachonok from Florida for example.

Libor Hayek, LHD ------------- 2016, 2nd #37
Yegor Rykov, LHD ------------ 2016, 5th #132
K'Andre Miller, LHD ---------- 2018, 1st, #22
Nils Lundkvist, RHD ---------- 2018, 1st #28
Matthew Robertson LHD ---- 2019 2nd #49
Zachary Jones, LHD ---------- 2019, 3rd #68
8 mai 2020 à 10 h 45
#20
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Xqb15
I think this is generally along the lines of what happens in the off season. I like Namestikov but 4yrs is to much term to roll the dice on. We’ve discussed our differing positions on the term for some of the RFA’s.

I agree with you, ideally we can get Namestnikov for less term.

That said, Namestnikov is 27 and will probably be wanting some term on his next contract. He's at an age where he could feasibly take a 2 year deal and then cash in at 29, but I think he's going to want to play it safe and go for term on this contract. He'll probably get offered 5 years by some teams but I think he'd settle for 4 with a contender like us where he's already a good fit. Maybe the cap hit could be slightly lower though, around $3.75m or thereabouts.
8 mai 2020 à 10 h 50
#21
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Yeah that's not really my concern....I'm just showing what players on-ice contribution actually is and how that's been equated with previous trades and then we construct a "value". What the fanbase thinks is "fair" is frankly kinda irrelevant.

I would agree that Zadorov *was* worth a 2nd and 3rd at one point maybe a season or 2 ago. But no not anymore. And I'm not sure if just using draft position as a basis for player value now post draft is the wisest thing to do. Ask Kings fans if they think a 2nd and Kaliyev are interchangeable value-wise....

In what way has Zadorov changed in the last year to make you think he's not worth a 2nd and 3rd anymore compared to then?

Valid point about using draft position as a basis. Not all drafted players are valued the same a year after being drafted. With that said, how has Robertson being doing since the draft?
8 mai 2020 à 11 h 2
#22
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Quoting: Richard88
In what way has Zadorov changed in the last year to make you think he's not worth a 2nd and 3rd anymore compared to then?

Valid point about using draft position as a basis. Not all drafted players are valued the same a year after being drafted. With that said, how has Robertson being doing since the draft?


re: Robertson - title should say it all https://www.foreverblueshirts.com/the-draft-analyst-matthew-robertson-living-up-to-last-years-draft-hype/

re: Zadorov - we can use easy to read charts. Here's his RAPM which adjusts all his on ice metrics relative to league average while factoring things like a) zone starts b) quality of competition c) score. etc.

Here's Zadorov 2 years ago , He's looking slightly above average pretty much across the board
Screen-Shot-2020-05-08-at-10-58-21-AM

Now here's Zadorov this year - the defense has dropped to league average and the offense has plummeted. Avs coaching staff has also noticed this downturn and has healthy scratched him a few times...
Screen-Shot-2020-05-08-at-10-58-33-AM

So yeah...that's a big red flag. And that's why compared to better players when they were traded (see above posts with Miller/Maatta), Zadorov isn't getting a 2nd...
8 mai 2020 à 11 h 59
#23
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Sagecoll
re: Robertson - title should say it all https://www.foreverblueshirts.com/the-draft-analyst-matthew-robertson-living-up-to-last-years-draft-hype/

re: Zadorov - we can use easy to read charts. Here's his RAPM which adjusts all his on ice metrics relative to league average while factoring things like a) zone starts b) quality of competition c) score. etc.

Here's Zadorov 2 years ago , He's looking slightly above average pretty much across the board


Now here's Zadorov this year - the defense has dropped to league average and the offense has plummeted. Avs coaching staff has also noticed this downturn and has healthy scratched him a few times...


So yeah...that's a big red flag. And that's why compared to better players when they were traded (see above posts with Miller/Maatta), Zadorov isn't getting a 2nd...

When was Zadorov healthy scratched this season?

As per his game log in the link below he's only been in the single digits in ice time twice this season, and one of those times was when he broke his jaw. Otherwise his ice time has been fairly consistent.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/z/zadorni01/gamelog/2020

In fact, his average TOI this season (17:46) is higher than last season (17:12) so your theory about him having a drastic downturn in responsibility by coaches doesn't float.
8 mai 2020 à 12 h 6
#24
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Quoting: Richard88
When was Zadorov healthy scratched this season?

As per his game log in the link below he's only been in the single digits in ice time twice this season, and one of those times was when he broke his jaw. Otherwise his ice time has been fairly consistent.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/z/zadorni01/gamelog/2020

In fact, his average TOI this season (17:46) is higher than last season (17:12) so your theory about him having a drastic downturn in responsibility by coaches doesn't float.


https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/08/avalanche-nikita-zadorov-scratched-san-jose/

https://theathletic.com/1659995/2020/03/09/whats-going-on-with-nikita-zadorov-and-the-avalanche-this-season/
8 mai 2020 à 17 h 20
#25
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John 3 16
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Thanks for pointing that out, I had forgotten about that.

I think scratches can to some extent be put down to the tough way Bednar treats Zadorov. For whatever reason Zadorov gets really hard treatment for mistakes, when players like Cole can suck and still continue to get played. I think Zadorov could do well with a fresh start in a system that allows him some defensive freedom to make his hits.
 
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