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A Thot Experiment - Pushing the Leafs Top Six to the Limit

Créé par: Random2152
Équipe: 2020-21 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 31 mars 2020
Publié: 1 avr. 2020
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
This is just a thought experiment. I didn't want to propose trades that people would argue about to stay on topic. As such I simply put Mango and Kappy on LTIR to remove their cap hit and didn't sign Mik and Mitz. In this scenario you would obviously have a trade return for them.

The question I found myself asking was how much can you ride a top 6? The Leafs have two very good first lines and generally first lines tend to play between 20 and 25 minutes a night depending on the team, coach, and game situations.

*What is that toi number that they can play at across a season and into the playoffs without increasing their injury chance and burning them out from overplaying?*

While good 1st lines often play as much as 25 minutes a night, that seems to be the top end of their toi and is likely not sustainable for a full season.
After experiencing the whole Babcock thing, I can tell you that playing them only 20 minutes a night isn't enough. While it leaves them fresh, there is more to squeeze out of them without overplaying them.
I might be off (so feel free to correct me) but a 1st line playing 22-23 minutes a night across a season sounds about right to me.

Here is the scenario:
The cap goes down and the NHL tells its teams to deal with it without any aides.
The Leafs sign Barabanov and he is everything he is hyped up to be (can swap for Mango or Mik if you don't think so, it just raises the cap hit and changes the long term implications for Robertson).
Robertson has a great camp and is clearly too good for junior. Using a plan I will outline below we keep him on the team.

Assuming we go with that 22-23 minutes a night estimate (22.5 for easier math) our two very good first lines would eat up 45 minutes of the hardest minutes each night. That leaves 15 minutes for the entire bottom 6 in total, and those minutes would be against substantially weaker competition. Considering that we would be able to shelter that bottom 6, and that they would hardly play,

So why are we paying for third liners? (This is the thought experiment)

If we are playing the top six 45 minutes a night we can use lesser players in the bottom 6 being paid pennies and shelter them when needed. Keep your roleplayers and prospects here until ready to take that step into the top 6.
Robertson's defence has come along, but likely still needs work. He is also a goal scorer so we want to play him with a centre who is good defensively and a pass-first player. Sounds like Kerfy to me. I would also pair him with Spezza because his vision and play making skills are still elite even though the other aspects of his game have fallen off. In a sheltered role I want to see him FEED Robertson and I think it could work out well.
Let's say this line gets ~10 minutes a night.

That leaves the 4th line where you only need to play them a few minutes and can put projects and role players on it. Kossila has been good for the Marlies and deserves a shot (as has Agostino). Gagner has had decent underlyings and might be a good project player like Ennis was on our 4th line. I would be willing to pay him up to 850k. Could be Agostino or Korshkov (or even Clifford for the right price) instead. Engval is too good to be playing on this 4th line but even when gutted we are still too deep. He is a specialist and can rotate in on the 3rd line to give Spezza or Robertson a break or when Kerfy had to be used elsewhere for other reasons. Engval is a big PK guy so that would be a big responsibility of his (along with Hyman, Kerfoot and I'd like to see Mats on the pk).

So what are your thoughts on this thot experiment? Could it work? Why or why not (be specific).

I figure I should justify the rest of the roster. I do not think this experiment would work with the Dcore as they as a group must play more minutes due to there being less of them. As a result it is difficult to ride them and to shelter others adequately in the same manor as we theoretically could for the forwards.

In terms of pairings I chose to keep the Muzzin-Holl pairing together to take the shut down minutes.
I think Rielly and Liljegren would play off each other very nicely, so I'd give them sheltered offensive usage.
Sandin needs a parent with him and was being pushed around a bunch last year. Getting a guy like Gudas who can not only play but can hold his own should really help to cover for Sandin's flaws and open up space for him on the ice.

If it is deemed nessisary you could always revert to a more traditional top-4 setup by flipping Liljegren and Gudas.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
UFAANSCAP HIT
1700 000 $
1700 000 $
33 500 000 $
CRÉÉANSCAP HIT
Barabanov, Alexander
1925 000 $
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1 avr. 2020 à 17 h 8
#1
Banni
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Gudas is a nice add
1 avr. 2020 à 17 h 24
#2
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Sheltering players really doesn't do anything, your coach can't control who the other coach puts out, so 50% of the time your coach has 0 control over it, and the other 50% of the time, when your team changes last, can only control it roughly 20-25% of the time bc the rest of shifts start on the fly, it results in the QoC of elite players and replacement level players having almost no affect (changes of roughly +/-0.05 GF/60 or GA/60 vs +/-0.75 in QoT on the extremes)
1 avr. 2020 à 17 h 30
#3
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Proven NHL success story formula, Top 6 can score, Bottom 6 must defend.
1 avr. 2020 à 17 h 38
#4
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Modifié 1 avr. 2020 à 17 h 48
I think this is the essence of the style that Dubas wants to implement. It was clear that Dubas and Babcock did not work together, and why? Major philosophical differences. Babcock rolled 4 lines in an unbelievably consistent manner. To pay you're stars what they are worth (and maybe more, but don't focus on this), only to play them that little did not make any sense.

That's why most of the suggestions of trading one of the 'big 4' don't make sense to me. Having those players is a good thing. It allows you run those two lines 42-45 minutes a night, and expect them to do better than the other team during those minutes because not many have two lines to match theirs. So you go cheap on your bottom 6. Find serviceable talent on bargain deals (i.e Spezza, Mikheyev, potentially Barabonov) and develop your draft picks/signings as best you can so they can play on elc's. All you need is guys who can hold their own for 7-10 minutes a night. Those guys are easy to find. And for those who you bring in and they perform above expectations, and price themselves out (i.e Johnsson), that's still a good thing, just trade them and recoup assets whether it be picks or to address another need; RD in this scenario.

I won't comment on the specific's because that's impossible to predict, but I don't think the specifics were the point here. I think you are bang on about the theory.
1 avr. 2020 à 17 h 38
#5
Banni
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Quoting: AFOX10900
Sheltering players really doesn't do anything, your coach can't control who the other coach puts out, so 50% of the time your coach has 0 control over it, and the other 50% of the time, when your team changes last, can only control it roughly 20-25% of the time bc the rest of shifts start on the fly, it results in the QoC of elite players and replacement level players having almost no affect (changes of roughly +/-0.05 GF/60 or GA/60 vs +/-0.75 in QoT on the extremes)


sheltering players does work.
I mean Look at JJ in the 1st half of the season when he was sheltered in a 3rd line role...... Then look what happened when people got injured and he had to play 20+ minutes night in a non sheltered role.

Clearly hiding him helped.
1 avr. 2020 à 17 h 43
#6
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Kinda of a big hope that cap is 84.5. Barbanov had 20 points in 46 games in the KHL as a 24 year old. Really think he is 2nd or 3rd liner winger in the NHL? We've hundreds, maybe thousands, of high scoring juniors/NCAA and AHLer never make a dent in the NHL. Kinda of a dream that Robertson is NHL ready. Gee, the Marlies have a real junior scoring phenom in Brooks. After two AHL seasons think he even makes the Leaf.
Minutes...the "type" of minutes should be considered. PP players can probably take on more minutes as they generally exert as much physical energy as PK players. Scheduling also affects if a player is can be overused for a game. Even if a player only plays 10 minutes a game, he better be NHL good.
1 avr. 2020 à 17 h 53
#7
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Do you guys watch playoff hockey ? have you not noticed how many times a big game changing goal scored was done by a bottom 6 "plug" ?
or many times in the playoffs a teams bottom 6 grunts outworks and shuts done the opposing team's top stars ?

Dismissing the importance of a quality bottom 6 is a huge mistake.
1 avr. 2020 à 18 h 15
#8
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Well thought out post, kudos for your explanation. I am not sure this strategy would work for Toronto, playing these 2 lines more would likely has a negative impact in the defensive zone, where Toronto really needs to improve in order to be considered a top end contender. The natural tendency for a player is to conserve a little energy on the ice by not working as hard on the defensive end. More minutes means more odd man rushes against, and more high quality shots on your goalie. Toronto is already one of the top goal scoring teams in the league, playing your top 6 more will likely not have a major positive effect in goals for, but will really show up in the defensive zone.
1 avr. 2020 à 18 h 27
#9
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I would start with saying that the top 6 forwards need to be way better from a defensive position standpoint. Matthews showed glimpses of this in every game but sadly, he was the only one out of the 3 young players Leafs have (referring to Nylander and Marner for those who couldn't figure it out). I have no problem leaning on the top 6 but both these lines are going to have to be better tremendously from a defensive aspect of the game.

If these two lines are only marginally better on the defensive side of things, then I worry about the D. They will get hung out to dry and the Leafs will have a new whipping boy on the D.
2 avr. 2020 à 13 h 56
#10
hey look a squirrel
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Interesting thought for sure and very well thought out.


I am not sure the Leafs top6 can play defensively responsible enough.
 
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