I don't know how they can give Jarry less than Murray after this season.

Both of them would be on "prove it" deals

If they win a Cup this year with Jarry starting most of the games, you're not getting Jarry for less than Binnington or Murray. If they fall short, the contract you're suggesting probably makes sense.

Yeah but Matt Murray will be the playoff starting goalie...barring injury.

If Murray is making more than 4.25 mil I don't see a situation where both of them are in a Pens uniform next season. Even with the Current numbers you have one of them will need to go especially before the expansion draft. The Pens aren't built to put a lot of money into goalies.
I think CRaig smith could be a good addition but don't see how he has earned a raise over his current contract

I think you could be right given that the Penguins also have DeSmith in the system, so I think the Penguins management will go a similar path to what I've done here and give them short to medium term deals