Modifié 26 févr. 2020 à 13 h 46
Quoting: JTBF81
Tampa's defense is fine and tougher than you think. It was a fluke fall and a rocket from Malkin that hurt Rutta and McD. Rutta has been vastly improved this year and has been a very solid defensive dman on the right side. Granted having Hedman as a partner is quite nice, but Rutta has held his own just fine. McD and Cernak are still a good shutdown 2nd pair, Cernak slumped a bit in the 1st half but has lately found his game again. Sergachev has taken many steps forward this year and Shattenkirk , while not great defensively, is still fine on the 3rd pair. Many of the dmen you mentioned would've been fine, but JBB was not going to trade for a rental and the 2 or 3 main guys with term would've cost far too much and Tampa would not have been able to afford their cap hit next year without basically guaranteeing losing one of Serg or Cirelli, which is unacceptable.
Tampa's big problem lately in the playoffs has been a lack of offense in big moments, not terrible defense. Not looking at last year, every other big series before where Tampa lost was because the top 6 went silent and Tampa didnt have the depth scoring to save it. Tampa also didn't have the size and grit to p l.j a yh a more physical, punishing game when the refs swallow the whistles more. They have now addressed both and have an offense that is capable to win different ways. The price was high, but JBB recognized what he believed was the weakness that needed to be addressed.
I wish the pick Tampa got back was Colorado's 2md or San Jose's early 3rd, as the loss of 20-25 or ~35 picks would have been easier to digest than the ~50 pick drop it will be, but Tampa has done very well in the mid rounds finding gems and even in a deep draft like this one, with Tampa's pick being where it would have been, at best a 50/50 chance that player makes a meaningful contribution within 3 years. JBB will likely recoup assets anyway this summer so it's not as though Tampa won't get picks back. JBB is playing a game where he has given Tampa a better chance now while slightly mortgaging the future. He is also working on keeping the team a contender 3 years down the line which these moves also help with.
I have never been a big fan of Cooper, so if the Lightning fail again I am 100% behind his ouster. I believe he is a good coach but no longer necessarily the right fit for this team. I hope he proves me wrong but if not, if look at Gallant perhaps if he's still available. With yhe.moves JBB made, he has clearly signaled that the time is right now and so another failure should mean a coaching change and if then still no success, perhaps a change in GM as well.
Oh yes, we agree on a lot of things, i know Rutta is better then in
( + i just saw today Koekoekk and he played hopelessly like i expected vs Blues - he is still bad
),
But will Rutta be better in the playoffs? VS top team's top lines in tryhard mode + physical style. Not reg-season style of soft games...
You cannot base your evaluation on those games future playoffs performances...
My answer: He will be not good "enough" for a cup run... i hope i'm wrong obviously... but the eyetest to me in hard-fought physical matches shows = he is not good.
I'm talking about playoffs hockey, where every small mistake = you lose 1 game most likely.
Do you understand the difference between Rutta playing good(from the eyetest) vs Ottawa/Anaheim/1 meaningless Colorado game(just random examples) vs when we meet Caps + Mr. Tom "publicenemy Nr. 1" Wilson + possible Perfection line vs Boston in 2nd round.
Also i heard
plays dirty in the playoffs too, if we meet and their coach is Barry "godtier" Trotz, who outcoaching Cooper in latest years...
What if we meet
in the finals? Have you watched the games this year vs them. We looked uncomfortable out there. Result 0-2 sweep for them this year... They play dirty , like Radulov + Jamie Benn ( almost just got suspended for a dirty hit)
You see where i'm going with this. If we would've gotten a guy like Dillon. He would've helped us a lot on the D-men front or a guy like Josh Manson... some of our forwards were rookies i know... but u cant have every 12 forward perfect... so it's alright to get 2 heavy hitter forward, who good on the pk/checking/clutch moments/energizers...
So back to Rutta and the "Enforcer type guys & dirty physical teams"... They will just push him away from the middle or from the net and we allow 1+ goal for free...
But like a guy like Dillon, who is super physical and plays dirty and he pushes Kucherov to the ice and doesn't even get penalized for it? REFEREES are just plain r*tard*d in the playoffs. That's so bad for our team's long term success...
I just checked couple days ago the last 5-6 years overall points stats in reg season i wrote the stats in other post...
All teams almost has already!!! minimum 1 cup except
and
.
I wonder why? Oh yeah, because we never play like those teams together with boston... Boston is not that physical as other people say... they easily lost to Blues last year after easy 3 series...
Our tripping = penalty. Their Holding = game on... then eventually we lose... because 1 penalty / game = such a huge momentum change potentially and they allow every holding/interefence to go without punishment.
So that's why i'm starting to see the value in Goodrow the more days are passing since the trade happend. He will come handy in playoffs. But i feel our D-Core is just not good enough for a cup run ...
I wish Bogosian would be good, i wish man... other people call him = super trash in every forum i see.. it's not hopeful... but i'm still praying he will be "useful" in playoffs...
Anyways back to the Goodrow trade...
I wrote a long post about the 2 trades combined in other topic. And it comes out as a package deal:
middle 1st round + early 2nd round + early 2nd round for Coleman/goodrow package.
Not even that bad, if u analyze a little deeper. Between pick Nr 26th vs pick Nr 35th not much of a difference... Much smaller than pick Nr3 vs pick Nr 10...
But still both trades a big win for the other team... unless we win the cup in 2020 or in 2021 ( doubtful). Yes as a tampa fan i expect us to win it, but that's not the reality...
You always have to look it from a neutral perspective: Our D-Core has huge leaks = we have random chance of winning.(1 in 9 right now)
Yes i know, 10 games winning streak x 2 is a good sign for a cup win, but it's not a guarantee, when the referees will just take away their whistles and our team will have injury problems after 15 games in the playoffs...
Yes i know in theory we can get lucky, like last year's Boston and make the finals without playing "hard physical teams", where we have insane win %.
Like i have no doubt we win vs non-metro + non-central teams... or like the NYR/Panthers if they make it... we are king of the atlantic + we have like insane win % vs pacific teams... we are better than those teams.(usually they dont have a good goalie).Arizona has but they dont have elite forwards... kessel is regressing... hall = injury prone etc...
Other topic I wanna show you this list i made. In () are the expected playoffs results based on my calculations + season series + past history...
I watch often other games in the NHL as well... so i know every team basically... i know the main strength + weakness of every team...
If you think i'm wrong in any playoffs results, please share your thoughts.
Physicality list NHL 2019-2020:
01. STL(0-4)
02. Washington(2-4)
03. Dallas(4-3)
04. Columbus(4-2)
05. Philadelphia(3-4)
06. NYI(4-3)
07. Anaheim(4-0)
08. TBL
09. Boston(4-3)
10. LA(4-1)
11. Pittsburgh(4-3)
12. Colorado(4-3)
13. VGK(3-4)
14. Calgary(4-2)
15. Ottawa(4-0)
16. NYR(4-0)
Who is not on the list---> We probably win that series
So 03. Dallas(4-3) means = Dallas is 3rd most physical team in the NHL - and we will win the stanley cup finals 4-3 vs them.
You could ask? But why am i predicting a win---> when we went 0-2 this year vs dallas?
Because the west is a bloodbath, and they will be "beat up" in june.
They play a hard style of hockey... and they are not a young team... so by the time they make it to finals... they will be out of gas/lots of injuries/fatigue/focus problems...
They can't play super-sayian mode vs us like Columbus did last year in round 1 or what they did in the reg season this year... Example from last year:
fresh Columbus-Tampa 4-0
vs
tired Columbus-Boston 2-4
You could ask? But why will Tampa be fresh in the finals?
Because based on my predictions, we only make the finals , if we avoid the worst matchups(Washington-Philly-Islanders).
So if we avoid these teams, we will be fresh. And we probably lose vs these teams anyways... so not worth to calculate what happens when we play these teams...
Odds are, we are out... we will just get outgrinded... Only 2 players,Goodrow+Coleman probably doesn't help... need more...
Yes i wrote a 4-3 win over Islanders but that's probably just wishful thinking on my part... i hope they will fail to make the playoffs with some miracle... I just hope they will be tired from the defensive grind in 2020 may, if we meet them... Trotz!!! probably beats us... so that matchup is just probably bad... Cooper just can't find a new strategy, when we losing badly vs good defensive teams...
Here is my current Stanley-Cup finals + winner predictions:
East
Vs.
West
Winner:
Dark Horse: flyers ( i want to avoid them 1st+2nd playoffs round like plague- so please no Pres trophy...)
Also before season i thought
never doing a repeat run, but now i think they are playing super amazing hockey again. So back2back cup = possible.... Good for them,if they do it...
Currently i don't think my 2 fav teams are making it. Avs has too many injuries the whole year = gonna be even worse in playoffs = almost hopeless + non-elite goalies doesn't help them... and you already know why i don't predict Tampa in the finals... Although with luck we might be there. Fingers crossed
TBL vs VGK = would be amazing finals
I would put Tampa currently only 4th favorite only. If we would've traded for a shutdown reliable D-man: I would have put tampa in 1st place = Top favourite