Forums/Armchair-GM

Odd Leafs Question

Créé par: exo2769
Date de création initiale: déc 4, 2019
Publié: 4 déc 2019 à 15 h 03
Équipe: 2019-20 Blackhawks de Chicago
Explications
Let's just assume that the CAR trade is accepted. The point of this post isn't the valuing the CAR trade whether or not it's too much or not enough...blah blah blah

What would would it take in a trade for the MAIN piece to simply be dropping the top 10 protection? It's obviously a no brainer if you think TOR is 100% playoff bound because that means either of these trades are essentially free. BUT there's a very small chance (16% as of today) that you're giving up a HUGE piece.

How much do you believe in your own team...just to MAKE the playoffs?
Transactions
CHI
  1. 2020 1e round pick (TOR)
CAR
  1. Lehner, Robin
CHI
  1. Holl, Justin
Détails additionnels:
Removing the top 10 protection. It's a gamble, but statistically speaking might be the best trade you can get...no?

Even now, there's only a 16% chance at a top 3 pick.
TOR
  1. Gustafsson, Erik (600 000 $ retained)
CHI
  1. Ceci, Cody
Détails additionnels:
Removal of top 10 protection.

It's an either or trade. Just curious.
TOR
  1. Crawford, Corey (3 000 000 $ retained)
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
  • Erik Gustafsson: 600 000 $ (50%)
  • Corey Crawford: 3 000 000 $ (50%)
  • Robin Lehner: 2 500 000 $ (50%)
ANNÉE DE REPÊCHAGERONDE 1RONDE 2RONDE 3RONDE 4RONDE 5RONDE 6RONDE 7
2020
CHI
TOR
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI
2021
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI
MTL
2022
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI
CHI
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS BONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2381 500 000 $81 276 794 $0 $6 920 000 $223 206 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
CHI
Saad, Brandon
6 000 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
CHI
Toews, Jonathan
10 500 000 $
C
NMC
UFA - 4
CHI
Kubalik, Dominik
925 000 $
AG
RFA - 1
CHI
DeBrincat, Alex
778 333 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
CHI
Strome, Dylan
863 333 $
C
RFA - 1
CHI
Kane, Patrick
10 500 000 $
AD
NMC
UFA - 4
CHI
Shaw, Andrew
3 900 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 3
CHI
Kämpf, David
1 000 000 $
C, AD
RFA - 2
CHI
Caggiula, Drake
1 500 000 $
AG, AD
RFA - 1
CHI
Nylander, Alexander
863 333 $
AD, AG
RFA - 2
CHI
Carpenter, Ryan
1 000 000 $
AD, C
UFA - 3
CHI
Dach, Kirby
925 000 $
C, AD
RFA - 3
CHI
Smith, Zack
3 250 000 $
AG, C
NTC
UFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
CHI
Keith, Duncan
5 538 462 $
DG
NMC
UFA - 4
CHI
Seabrook, Brent
6 875 000 $
DD
NMC
UFA - 5
CHI
Lankinen, Kevin
925 000 $
G
UFA - 1
CHI
De Haan, Calvin
4 550 000 $
DG/DD
UFA - 3
CHI
Murphy, Connor
3 850 000 $
DD
UFA - 3
CHI
Delia, Collin
1 000 000 $
G
UFA - 3
CHI
Määttä, Olli
4 083 333 $
DG
UFA - 3
TOR
Ceci, Cody
4 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 1
CHI
Koekkoek, Slater
925 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1
CHI
Gilbert, Dennis
925 000 $
DG
RFA - 2

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4 déc 2019 à 15 h 05
#1
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 1,114
Mentions "j'aime": 237
I’ll take Crawford for ceci rn. We could call lilgren up. Holl for gus ah I wouldn’t mind it
4 déc 2019 à 15 h 06
#2
Démarrer sujet
exo2769
Rejoint: jui 2015
Messages: 7,442
Mentions "j'aime": 2,380
Quoting: Leafs_fan13
I’ll take Crawford for ceci rn. We could call lilgren up. Holl for gus ah I wouldn’t mind it


So you'd drop the top 10 protection of your 2020 1st round pick for BOTH of these trades?
4 déc 2019 à 15 h 09
#3
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 1,114
Mentions "j'aime": 237
Quoting: exo2769
So you'd drop the top 10 protection of your 2020 1st round pick for BOTH of these trades?


I would
exo2769 et Jamiepo a aimé ceci.
4 déc 2019 à 15 h 20
#4
get off my lawn...
Rejoint: jui 2018
Messages: 14,640
Mentions "j'aime": 7,310
Quoting: Leafs_fan13
I would


Yup, I think that may work, provided sandin is called up.
exo2769 a aimé ceci.
4 déc 2019 à 15 h 45
#5
Go Hawks
Rejoint: jun 2017
Messages: 1,455
Mentions "j'aime": 615
I really like the concept of this deal, but I'd only make it at the deadline if Toronto is hovering around 10th place. Obviously if they are in the playoffs by then we shouldn't do it, or even if they're right on the bubble since it isn't worth giving up valuable assets just for 3% lottery odds. But if we do get their pick and they're close, I think this could be a good gamble to make.
exo2769 a aimé ceci.
4 déc 2019 à 17 h 43
#6
Nylander Apologist
Rejoint: fév 2018
Messages: 5,108
Mentions "j'aime": 2,241
Chicago Blackhawks
Leafs 2021 first round pick
(Also means condition on Carolina first is reverted because we have both)
Cody Ceci

Toronto Maple Leafs
Erik Gus
Corey Crawford 50% retained


Otherwise it’s just poor asset management... you are giving up Gus for holl and for a 1/1000000 chance the leafs miss the playoffs, and their pick is top 3 (10)…

Unless I have misunderstood this.
5 déc 2019 à 8 h 48
#7
Démarrer sujet
exo2769
Rejoint: jui 2015
Messages: 7,442
Mentions "j'aime": 2,380
@Stan_Bowman
All I was really trying to do was really ask the question...what would it take to removed the Top 10 Protection on their 2020 1st rounder? It's an extremely subjective and vague question (I understand) considering we're not near the TDL AND it's a complete gamble. It's worth more than future considerations...because why include it at all if it weren't. It's worth Less than...well a lot of things.

The more important part is getting the 1st, but once you have it. (Assumption in this post) I think Stan would have to weigh his options. If for whatever reason he can't get a good return for Gus...This option to me is better than just a 3rd rounder. I'd roll the dice because it's more arrows in the quiver for game changing players.
5 déc 2019 à 23 h 04
#8
Rejoint: oct 2019
Messages: 480
Mentions "j'aime": 151
Certainly a big risk to take with the Attacking Lineup the leafs can put out. Im not so sure I would do it though like you say, as we get closer to the TDL that could change.
 
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