Can you give a link for the leauge to leage translator

Blues hang up and block you.

1. NHL 1.0000

2. KHL 0.7461

3. Russia 0.7204

4. WHA 0.6963

5. SHL 0.6375

6. Czech 0.5563

7. Liiga 0.4696

8. NLA 0.4632

9. Czech Q 0.4517

10. Kvalserien SHL 0.4430

11. AHL 0.4241

12. Germany 0.3633

13. IHL 0.3626

14. Russia2 0.3575

15. VHL 0.3419

16. SM-sarja 0.3343

17. DEL 0.2949

curious what you think the value is?

I mean here's his ranks over the last 3 years amongst all Forwards in the league
Goal Rate: 27th
Point Rate: 51st

That's top line production. And just on Offense. The Defense? One of the leagues best. But hey, you're looking for a Tarasenko replacement? Here's a fun chart that's worth a bunch of numbers:



I mean here he is compared to Kevin Hayes, who got a 1st Rounder and Brendan Lemieux



Between Lemieux and Kostin, Both selected 31st overall. Lemieux put up .84 pts/gm in his 2nd full season in the AHL as a 21 year old. Kostin putting up .63 pts/gm currently in his 3rd full season in the AHL as a 20 year old.

Not trying to say they're 100% comparable players at all. But look at the chart for yourself, the difference between Kreider and Hayes is at least the difference between Kostin and Lemieux as prospects, and he got that compensation with a massive field of rentals to drive the price down. This year, it's basically Hall and Toffoli. Not sure you're going to get a much better price, especially if you want to make the playoffs with Pietrangelo again.

But I mean I'm sure you did all this research as opposed to just lazily looking at Hockey Reference since you're smarter than that.

NYR can definitely ask for that but I think the part you're missing is STL's internal valuation of Kostin, which goes beyond his pts/gm in the AHL as a teenager. He's probably our 2nd-best prospect so it wouldn't make sense to move him AND a first rounder for a rental. I think you'd have to expect one or the other. If some team with a better prospect pool goes after Kreider, maybe NYR can get a return value like this, but stl cant afford to do it.

Also, regardless of whether they drive play/impact the game equally, it's just a fact that wingers have lower trade value than centers so using Hayes as the comp isnt accurate.

One more - I would be hesitant to call a guy with 53 pts as a career high a top line producer.

Not to mention using Hayes as a comparison is ludicrous because a) the Hayes trade was idiotic & b) Philly's Hays signing was idiotic. And yes, he wholly ignores the rental aspect while deluding himself into imagining Kreider is top line quality or factoring in that Tarasenko *always* faces the toughest checkers and checking. I could go on, but that's mare than enough.

I get the hesitation in that the Blues have a thin prospect pool....Ranger fans know a lot about that!! But it all comes down to what the market will be for him... with really only Toffoli and Hall out there the market is pretty thin at CK's price point- so that may drive up the cost for him...really comes down to whether you think he's needed to make the playoffs (compensate for Tarasenko injury), whether you think he provides the extra edge once in the playoffs, and whether you want to re-sign him...if the answer to these 3 questions is YES- then this trade is worth it for the Blues...CK is a heck of a player- his numbers (which have been deflated by injury and the team situation the past 2-3 years) don't give the whole story about him...his size, speed, and physicality (which I can see under Berube going to a higher level) opens the ice for the other players and is what is essential in a playoff push...AND also realize that if his numbers were better the return asked for would be steeper that a 1st and a prospect....and his ensuing contract would be far north of what He'll eventually settle for.

maybe if you throw in fast as well.. but even then asking for Kostin and a 1st is a lot.. Kostin + 3rd would be a good return for Kreider.. if rangers retain they MAY be able to get a 2nd.. either way, rangers desperately need a right hand shot for the second line wing.. thinking puljujarvi will be the move once it gets towards the deadline (i understand that means he won't play with NYR until next year since december 1st deadline is looming)

Trading Hajek is a big mistake at this point in time. if anyone it would be rykov/lindgren

I agree. Your prospect pool is thin. And for that reason your cup window is probably now. Hence you'd be more* likely not less to actually go for short term success since you're probably looking at a rebuild in a couple years like Nashville and San Jose.

Also, his defensive quality negates the argument about position. It'd be the equivalent in saying Brayden Schenn has more value than Mark Stone because he's a C. Stone is so much better defensively that it doesn't matter.

Finally, the raw stats are down because of the coach. The Rangers have been a rebuilding team for a few years now, so they don't lean on their top line nearly as much as say Boston. That's why I use Goal Rate and Point Rate as opposed to Goals and Points. You can't blame Kreider for what his coach does. All that matters to you as a team trading for him is what happens when he's on the ice. And when he's on the ice, he scores at a top 50 forward pace. If you want to use him more in your playoff push, the raw results will start to match. You don't need to look very far to see that point in action, JT Miller saw his ice time go up by 2 mins a game in Tampa - he became a pt/gm player.

If anything the value will be swayed way more in the other direction. In terms of rentals, this year it's just Hall, Toffoli, or Kreider. As opposed to Duchene, Zucc, Hayes, Nyqvist, Johansson, Dzingel, Stone, Ferland, Simmonds.

The market is completely different.

I mean, you see the numbers, do you not understand what they mean? Would charts help more? We can talk about them if you like. I'm not sure what the argument is.

Anyway, to your last point: https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/why-quality-of-competition-doesn-t-matter-to-analytics-experts-anymore-1.23414544

The Blues aren't operating on a "window". We've missed the playoffs six times since 1980. Gotta make the playoffs to keep the revenue flowing. They've moved enough 1st rounders lately to build the team up, now I think it's time they hang on to their picks/prospects and make smart/savvy adds without being the big spenders. If they can land a guy like Kreider without using their 1st AND Kostin, sure do it. You're talking about a similar return for a couple months of Kreider as we paid for 5 years of ROR. Different situations, sure, but that's my point - gotta make smart moves.

I agree that wingers can be just as valuable as centers when it comes to play-driving/defense/etc, I'm just citing historical trade values. Centers get more unless you're talking about a guy like Stone who is an elite player. I'm talking about how Hayes and Stastny returned 1st rounders but Nyquist and Zuccarello got 2nds.

Oskar Sundqvist had a better 5v5 primary point scoring rate than Kreider last year so we'll just play him 20+ minutes a night and no need for the trade, got a top line player already

ROR is not a bad comparison! Here's ROR before the trade vs. Kreider now.




That's with ROR puttin up 0.49 Goals/60 and 1.35 Pts/60 again compared to Kreider putting up 1.01 and 2.08 respectively.

I'm not asking for a 1st and Kostin specifically. I'm just stating what Kreider's value is. If I go to Nashville, I'm asking for a 1st and Tolvanen (or Tomasino). And maybe they don't like Jarnkrok on their top line so they do it.

But I think you'd agree, that this is roughly appropriate value for him on the general market. (regardless of team-specific circumstances)

Not exactly. When is the last time (aside from elite guys like Stone/Karlsson) that a prospect of Tolvanen/Tomasino/Kostin's level has been traded for a rental? Was it Filip Forsberg, i.e. maybe the worst deadline trade ever? And you're expecting a first round pick along with them. I think it's a reach.

The Blues won't be able to afford anything beyond this year... teams aren't gonna toss that kind of value around. And especially not if they don't like their odds of re-signing the guy. I think Kreider will be able to get the Rags a 1st rounder, but I wouldn't bank on the prospect having similar value, it will be more of a mid-level guy. Someone else said Toropchenko + 1st. I like that for both sides if the Blues think they're one piece short at the TDL.

You guys literally traded Bokk for a rental a month ago...I think Bokk is better than Kostin or Tolvanen.

Not a rental, it was an offseason trade, and the extension was announced at the same time as the trade. Not the same thing - plus there was no high pick involved... I don't want to argue about it, just wanted to explain what I think is proper payment from STL for Kreider.

Well, that's just utter nonsense. Obviously.

As for the rest, yes, I can understand numbers. And yes, I find it hilarious how you've imagined that Kreider is "one of the league's best" defensively and how Faulk was a rental trade, and again, I could go on, but meh. You can have your opinion, but I'm here to tell you the Blues are not going to give up Kostin and a 2020 1st for expiring Kreider, who they definitely cannot afford to re-up. You're off your blinker if you think that could happen. End of.

anyway, speaking of hilarious. Here are the top 30 Forwards defensively in the league over the last 3 seasons sorted by their xGA/60. You'll notice some familiar names in there.



Faulk was a UFA at the end of the year. Hence he was a rental. You were smart to resign him since you gave up so much. But that has nothing to do with the terms of the deal. It literally means nothing to Carolina whether you resign him or not in the terms of the trade. Just as it doesn't mean anything to Montreal whether Vegas resigned Pacioretty. The price is the price. The negotiations for an extension are between the prospective new team and the player/agent.

I don't really think I've given any opinions this entire time, just presented data, which is hard to argue against but I appreciate your attempt heh. It doesn't matter whether the trade is with you or not, I think most Ranger fans just thought you would like him since you have the need at the moment in your lineup and considering the Blues are currently last in the league in expected goals for rate. You'd think it'd be pretty important to boost offense to stay in the playoff hunt this season...

I'm not a fan of banging my head against a wall, so I'm not going to discuss or debate anything else with you until you absorb the FACT that Faulk was not a rental in any way, shape or form. The Blues were given permission to negotiate his extension *before* the trade was completed, which never would have happened had an extension not already been agreed. This is an undeniable reality that Carolina has publicly affirmed.