Forums/NHL Signings

Toronto Maple Leafs signed Mitchell Marner (6 Years / $10,893,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
Le graphique a été masqué

Options de sondage

 

13 sep 2019 à 19 h 19
#26
Rejoint: jun 2018
Messages: 1,528
Mentions "j'aime": 344
Quoting: moli92
That's a lot of money. I don't like it. I hope Rantanens is a bit cheaper


Dislike
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 20
#27
BaRzAl OfFeRsHeEt
Rejoint: mar 2019
Messages: 6,428
Mentions "j'aime": 4,037
Noooo RIP the Marner jokes
justaBoss et rangersandislesfan a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 20
#28
mackinnon goat
Rejoint: aoû 2017
Messages: 5,025
Mentions "j'aime": 2,727
Quoting: DonkeyLips
Dislike


What?
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 24
#29
Kulak stan account
Rejoint: aoû 2018
Messages: 279
Mentions "j'aime": 109
Brayden Point should ask for 20M
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 24
#30
Blues GM v4
Rejoint: nov 2016
Messages: 8,487
Mentions "j'aime": 2,735
We can and we will
rangersandislesfan a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 24
#31
Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
Rejoint: nov 2018
Messages: 452
Mentions "j'aime": 96
Training camp + Nylander pressure? Huh? Huh? Huh?

From 10 million $ @ 6 years offer leaked in last months ---> 10.9 million $ @ 6 years = Big loss For Dubas, and i expected it... that's the worst part...
Here is my own comment on August 3rd in a random topic: It's long, so sorry for anyone, who doesn't like to read long messages... but i think it's worth the read, if u followed this "saga" for a while...
I got it right exactly haha, except 1-2 weeks earlier it happend, because pressure from media+fans+ newest leak few days ago about 7-8 years contract. cool cool cool

Alright folks, i have avoided for a couple of weeks the lots of news about Marner's contract, but now i dived deep into it.
So his agent turned down so far:
10-11 mill $$$ @ 8 years
10 mill $$$ @ 3 years
(it turned out later -> Shannahan was who didn't accept this)

From the newest article it seems, they are(Marner's agent) not accepting anything over 5 years. However the problem is that Toronto doesn't want to give Marner 5 years, because of the Matthews contract.
So 5,(6),7,8 years are basically done at this point, unless Toronto willing to give ~ 11 mill+, which seems like not the case for now from these around ~ 10 mill offers at various years, they just want to avoid anything over 11mill, and its understandable.
11 mill @ 6 years = overpayment, and what if Marner's agent says no to that as well. So in the end they should offer 11.6 mill @ 6 years? Hell no, thats almost Matthews contract, so for Marners agent = Colossal win.

So lets examine 4 years = UFA = BIG NO from toronto

So all that's left is 1,2,3 years:
1 year seems silly , so next year they start this again, jeez, hell no. tears of joy
2 years = little better but i think its still not that much, and Marner's agent for 2 years would need to accept even less money, since more years = more money in general. So i think 2 years seems unlikely at this point, but not impossible.

Which brings us to the most likely scenario:
3 years Bridge deal & RFA status after the contracts is expired = negotiations starting again. unsure

So now about the $$$, they don't want to give 11 million, so 10.3-10.8 millions between.

Next offer from Toronto: 10.2-10.4 mill @ 3 years in August. But i think Marner's agent says, no thanks.
Next offer after that 10.4-10.6 mill @ 3 years after September. Probably still no from Marner's agent. Because they really like the 5 years term. So they say no to 3 years unless its really close to Matthews's money.

But here comes the problem, Toronto would need to make moves, to offer more since they have roughly that cap space if i have correct informations from these LTIR cap space. But a little help from additional injuries: +Dermott+Hyman, also LTIR.
So maybe they can offer one last try before season starts(or soon after season starts): ALL-IN from Toronto, take it or leave it deal type:

~ 10.75 million $$$ @ 3 years

That's my current guess, and it would be not good for Toronto, and a huge-huge win for Marner's agent, since Kucherov couple years ago after 60-70 points season signed a " 4.8 mill @ 3 years" bridge deal.
Let's add inflation, more points and RFA market tendency changes(players want more money, than 3 years ago at young age RFA status), and taxes in toronto. That would be a fair deal: 9 mill @ 3 years.
So from 4.8 million $$$ ---> 10.75million $$$, do u guys see how crazy is this number? It was only 3 years ago!!! And it looks like its not far from reality at this point.

So one last possiblity, around october maybe Dubas says yes to 5-6 years, to save trouble with the 3 years contract in 2022 to renegotiate again: Then they offer a respectable 10.9 million offer. And agent also says yes to 6 years instead of 5.
10.9 mililon $$$ @ 6 years- so they get 1 more year after Matthews's contract expire. But Marner at the end still doesn't get Matthew's money, which is 11.63.
So it's a small mini-win for Dubas: More years & less money & Marner doesnt sit out except meaningless idk 5-10 games or less. It will hurt only for 3 years, after that it will be an alright contract.
Same with Vasilevsky in Tampa 9.5 million will be bad for next 3 seasons, after that max cap will rise(new tv deal, etc...) so what is now 10 million $$$ will look so much better, when the guys like Hayes getting 10mill+ as well. Yes i know thats UFA but still...

So far it looks like Marner's camp winning and 10.75 mill @ 3 years around type of deal has the highest chance of being reality.
I would say:
3 years - 50%
5 years - 10%
6 years - 30%
Rest 10% or less( like 9.5 mill @ 1 year)

Even though EW Contract Projections: 2019 spreadsheet says:
3 years chance = 2.2%
5 years chance = 20.8% - i would be schocked if its 5 years
6 years chance = 24.4%
8 years chance = 42.6% - this seems like currently under 1%

From these offers and projections you can clearly see, close to 0% chance of any amount of years contract under 10.2 million $$$.
Seems like Dubas is really giving him respectable offers...(not lowballing like Carolina did with Aho like around 6 million $ = offer sheet accepted)
So i'm truly surprised that Marner's agent rejected the 10 mill @ 3 years, so its must be over 10.5 mill what his agent willing to accept at 3-6 years. Can't wait to see the next rejected offer... grimace

If Dubas pulls off anything under 10 million $$$ = Miracle


Good luck! Toronto Maple Leafs

andddd sooooo the 1st domino falls...
justaBoss et OrangeMallard a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 25
#32
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 63
Mentions "j'aime": 12
Modifié 13 sep 2019 à 19 h 42
We all saw this coming. The Leafs are so screwed lol. The key to success is to have 20 good players, not 2 great players and 18 bums. Also, even after Horton and Clarkson go on LTIR, the Leafs will still be $2.8 Million over the cap. LOL. Paying Kessel $1.2 Million per year in retained salary not helping either lol (I know that was before Dubas was the GM, but still).
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 31
#33
Rejoint: déc 2017
Messages: 2,453
Mentions "j'aime": 1,055
I had him at $11.5M on an 8 year deal. This is probably a slight overpay given the 2 fewer years. Dubas got beat...but not terrible.
OrangeMallard a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 33
#34
Rejoint: mai 2015
Messages: 2,734
Mentions "j'aime": 419
Absolute overpayment. Dubas doesn't realize there's a salary cap does he?
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 37
#35
HonestHockeyNYI
Rejoint: jui 2019
Messages: 122
Mentions "j'aime": 62
Toronto's cap situation is gonna be fun to watch. Roughly $33M tied up in just 3 players until 2025.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 38
#36
Rejoint: jui 2018
Messages: 3,419
Mentions "j'aime": 1,517
Modifié 13 sep 2019 à 19 h 57
The day when Dubarelli sank TBL, WPG, VAN and CGY with a single move.......
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 40
#37
best poster
Rejoint: jui 2019
Messages: 3,574
Mentions "j'aime": 2,417
Quoting: Laudan
The day Dubarelli sank TBL, WPG and CGY with a single move.......


PowerfulAdeptEastsiberianlaika-max-1mb.gif
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 44
#38
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Rejoint: jui 2015
Messages: 33,175
Mentions "j'aime": 8,773
I've said Nylander, Matthews and now Marner are overpaid. But is the new NHL and pay structure for RFAs? I know Leaf haters think this so bad for the Leafs, but now we have another "bar" for RFAs. Let's see what some of the other sign for before we say the Marner is that good or bad.
It's bargain compared to some of the recent UFA signings with long term. Karlsson at 11.5, Hayes at 7.1m. Kopitar at 11m. Is 27 year old Sequin at 9.8m X 8 or Stone at 9.5m X 8a better bargain than 22 year old Marner?
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 46
#39
Tomassss Tatarrrr
Rejoint: aoû 2019
Messages: 14
Mentions "j'aime": 65
Awesome. Good thing the Leafs have so much cap space! Oh wait...
rangersandislesfan a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 47
#40
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 63
Mentions "j'aime": 12
Quoting: palhal
I've said Nylander, Matthews and now Marner are overpaid. But is the new NHL and pay structure for RFAs? I know Leaf haters think this so bad for the Leafs, but now we have another "bar" for RFAs. Let's see what some of the other sign for before we say the Marner is that good or bad.
It's bargain compared to some of the recent UFA signings with long term. Karlsson at 11.5, Hayes at 7.1m. Kopitar at 11m. Is 27 year old Sequin at 9.8m X 8 or Stone at 9.5m X 8a better bargain than 22 year old Marner?


It's not even all about Marner himself. It's about the Leafs cap space, or lack thereof. If this was the Leafs one big money player, then people probably wouldn't make as big of a deal about it. But now the Leafs have 3 players averaging about $11 Million, which is ridiculous. Even after taking Horton and Clarkson off the books for LTIR, the Leafs would still be $2.8 Million over the cap...
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 49
#41
best poster
Rejoint: jui 2019
Messages: 3,574
Mentions "j'aime": 2,417
Quoting: TheCandoRailfan
We all saw this coming. The Leafs are so screwed lol. The key to success is to have 20 good players, not 2 great players and 18 bums. Also, even after Horton and Clarkson go on LTIR, the Leafs will still be $2.8 Million over the cap. LOL. Paying Kessel $1.2 Million per year in retained salary not helping either lol (I know that was before Dubas was the GM, but still).


yeah toronto is really screwed by having all their core players locked up in their prime
OrangeMallard, thelastlongbow, Random2152 and 1 other person a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 49
#42
AwesomeMatthews
Rejoint: mai 2018
Messages: 1,381
Mentions "j'aime": 989
It finally happened weirdly odd specific number
rangersandislesfan a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 50
#43
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 63
Mentions "j'aime": 12
Quoting: mondo
yeah toronto is really screwed by having all their core players locked up in their prime

Too bad the Leafs will be over the cap, and they don't have a defence core at all.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 52
#44
Rejoint: mai 2016
Messages: 135
Mentions "j'aime": 124
This contract is bad for the Leafs and it’s bad for the entire league. Not to mention outside of Toronto it’s definitely not winning Marner any fans.
rangersandislesfan a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 53
#45
best poster
Rejoint: jui 2019
Messages: 3,574
Mentions "j'aime": 2,417
Quoting: TheCandoRailfan
Too bad the Leafs will be over the cap, and they don't have a defence core at all.


leafs will be fine, they'll have at least 15 million next year.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 54
#46
Its pretty mint.
Rejoint: jun 2017
Messages: 7,270
Mentions "j'aime": 3,740
So basically the Flames have 2 options; sign Tkachuk to a bridge, or trade Frolik. Possibly both.
rangersandislesfan a aimé ceci.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 54
#47
Its pretty mint.
Rejoint: jun 2017
Messages: 7,270
Mentions "j'aime": 3,740
Also lol, great deal for both parties.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 55
#48
Its pretty mint.
Rejoint: jun 2017
Messages: 7,270
Mentions "j'aime": 3,740
Quoting: GeraltofRivia
This contract is bad for the Leafs and it’s bad for the entire league. Not to mention outside of Toronto it’s definitely not winning Marner any fans.


It’s not bad for Mikko Rantanen and Matthew Tkachuk.
13 sep 2019 à 19 h 59
#49
Rejoint: mai 2019
Messages: 63
Mentions "j'aime": 12
Quoting: mondo
leafs will be fine, they'll have at least 15 million next year.

The salary cap is not increasing by $18 million lol. Besides, they need to get under the cap if they don't want to potentially "face fines of up to US$5 million, cancellation of contracts, loss of draft picks, loss of points and/or forfeiture of game(s)".
13 sep 2019 à 20 h 00
#50
best poster
Rejoint: jui 2019
Messages: 3,574
Mentions "j'aime": 2,417
Quoting: TheCandoRailfan
The salary cap is not increasing by $17 million lol.


okay, since you don't know basic math:

projected cap hit for maple leafs 2020-21: $66,326,866
projected cap hit: $81,500,000
projected cap space: $15,173,134
 
Répondre
To create a post please Login or S'inscrire
Question:
Options:
Soumettre les modifications du sondage