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Forums/Armchair-GM

Feeling the RFA crunch

Créé par: Jungo
Équipe: 2019-20 Flames de Calgary
Date de création initiale: 24 juill. 2019
Publié: 24 juill. 2019
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Sam Bennett just signed for 2 years @ 2.55M per season. Here's hoping we can do Rittich for the same or less.

Whatever Tkachuk Signs for, i bet it will be around to 40-44 Million mark. Highest paying contracts in flames history was Monahan @ 44.625M. (but that was over 7 years.) Tkachuk will probably favor the Auston Matthews 5 Year deal.
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
22 550 000 $
58 000 000 $
1800 000 $
22 550 000 $
Rachats de contrats
Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
2020
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2021
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2022
Logo de CGY
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Logo de CGY
Logo de CGY
Logo de CGY
TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2081 500 000 $73 011 709 $0 $482 500 $8 488 291 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
Logo de Flames de Calgary
6 750 000 $6 750 000 $
AG
UFA - 3
Logo de Flames de Calgary
6 375 000 $6 375 000 $
C, AG, AD
UFA - 4
Logo de Flames de Calgary
4 850 000 $4 850 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 5
Logo de Flames de Calgary
8 000 000 $8 000 000 $
AD
UFA - 3
Logo de Flames de Calgary
5 350 000 $5 350 000 $
C
NTC
UFA - 5
Logo de Flames de Calgary
4 300 000 $4 300 000 $
AG, AD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
5 250 000 $5 250 000 $
AG, AD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo de Flames de Calgary
3 125 000 $3 125 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 2
Logo de Flames de Calgary
1 250 000 $1 250 000 $
C, AD
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
1 675 000 $1 675 000 $
C, AG
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
2 550 000 $2 550 000 $
C
UFA - 2
Logo de Flames de Calgary
800 000 $800 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Flames de Calgary
3 375 000 $3 375 000 $
DG
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo de Flames de Calgary
4 650 400 $4 650 400 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
2 750 000 $2 750 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
1 237 500 $1 237 500 $
DG
UFA - 5
Logo de Flames de Calgary
3 857 143 $3 857 143 $
DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Flames de Calgary
894 166 $894 166 $ (Bonis de performance425 000 $$425K)
DG
RFA - 2
Logo de Flames de Calgary
2 550 000 $2 550 000 $
G
UFA - 2
Logo de Flames de Calgary
755 833 $755 833 $ (Bonis de performance57 500 $$58K)
DD
UFA - 1

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24 juill. 2019 à 18 h 54
#1
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Amazing that people think they can offer Tkachuk that and turn around and say marner gets 11 or Some ****. Tkachuk has played with worse forwards on his line his entire career and has only ever been ~10 points behind Mitch every season while being gritty and all that ****.
Tkachuk will get ~500k less than marner with 1 additional year
24 juill. 2019 à 18 h 56
#2
harry
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Quoting: Random2152
Amazing that people think they can offer Tkachuk that and turn around and say marner gets 11 or Some ****. Tkachuk has played with worse forwards on his line his entire career and has only ever been ~10 points behind Mitch every season while being gritty and all that ****.
Tkachuk will get ~500k less than marner with 1 additional year


marner has 50 more points over first 3 seasons and has a higher celing then tkachuk
24 juill. 2019 à 18 h 59
#3
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Quoting: harrisonwright19
marner has 50 more points over first 3 seasons and has a higher celing then tkachuk


It isn't as high as 50, and marner is better. The point is that they aren't so far apart as to justify this kind of difference of opinion. That is unless you are willing to say that a 20 point difference each year (tops) is worth 3-4 million (hint: it isnt).
24 juill. 2019 à 19 h 0
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so CGY will have a second buyout window with two fillings so buyout Stone makes sense
24 juill. 2019 à 19 h 4
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Quoting: Random2152
Amazing that people think they can offer Tkachuk that and turn around and say marner gets 11 or Some ****. Tkachuk has played with worse forwards on his line his entire career and has only ever been ~10 points behind Mitch every season while being gritty and all that ****.
Tkachuk will get ~500k less than marner with 1 additional year


Marner shouldn't get more than 9.5M. He's good but not 8 figures good yet. His daddy is the reason he will get anywhere close to 11 mill
24 juill. 2019 à 19 h 15
#6
harry
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Quoting: Random2152
It isn't as high as 50, and marner is better. The point is that they aren't so far apart as to justify this kind of difference of opinion. That is unless you are willing to say that a 20 point difference each year (tops) is worth 3-4 million (hint: it isnt).


its exactly 50, marner is worth 10.5 if matthews is worth 11.6 IMO
24 juill. 2019 à 19 h 34
#7
Banni
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Quoting: Random2152
It isn't as high as 50, and marner is better. The point is that they aren't so far apart as to justify this kind of difference of opinion. That is unless you are willing to say that a 20 point difference each year (tops) is worth 3-4 million (hint: it isnt).


Guy who led his team in two of the last three seasons and nearly hit a hundred points last season is worth much more than the gritty guy who has been 3 and 4th respectively.
24 juill. 2019 à 19 h 54
#8
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Quoting: SmugTkachuk
Guy who led his team in two of the last three seasons and nearly hit a hundred points last season is worth much more than the gritty guy who has been 3 and 4th respectively.


Interesting. And not to jump in out of turn, but I'm curious on your take of player value vs contract value relative to team out put and cap structure?

Seriously, if a Marner for Tkachuck swap ever happened, in some theoretical way, I'd bet the Flames only add something very small to offset the difference. As a leaf fan I'd be curious about that.. I could see how Tkachuck could have a big impact with the leafs given team needs.

I think Random has a solid point, too. The contract difference between these two ex knight linemates probably won't be that much, imo. And Rantanen, Point and Aho probably land close as well. Also curious to see where Connor and Laine land. The grading of this group of players is fairly subjective
24 juill. 2019 à 20 h 4
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Modifié 24 juill. 2019 à 20 h 17
Quoting: harrisonwright19
its exactly 50, marner is worth 10.5 if matthews is worth 11.6 IMO


No Marner is not. Matthews scored a ton those points with 3rd liners as wingmen, is a centre, and drives a line + a whole host of other reasons (like that goals are worth more).
If Nylander is worth 6.9, Marner is worth 8.75.
Matthews is in the McDavid conversation (just to be clear McDavid > Matthews all day long). Marner is not and it really isn't close. Here is Marner vs McDavid (edited by the creator to show McDavid's true value)
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And again, 50 points over 3 seasons is 16.6 points per year. That is worth about 700k-1M going by other contracts. If Tkachuk is worth 8, Marner is worth 8.75 (which is correct. My grievance is those who will ignore all the evidence and say he is worth more while keeping Tkachuk at a fair price).

Quoting: SmugTkachuk
Guy who led his team in two of the last three seasons and nearly hit a hundred points last season is worth much more than the gritty guy who has been 3 and 4th respectively.


The only reason he ever lead the Leafs in points is that Matthews played with 3rd liners who couldn't produce in a pinch to save their life and his injuries and Marner was propped up by JT. Way to ignore all context to 'prove' a point. Matthews is the best 5v5 goal scorer in the league and drives a line while Marner does not.
As above, 3rd and 4th respectively is an average of 16.6 points behind playing with worse line mates. Even if we don't account for quality of teammates (the most important 'quality of' stat) 16-17 points is worth league minimum. So take Tkachuk and add 700k.

Hence Tkachuk being Marner -500k + 1 year in my first comment.
24 juill. 2019 à 20 h 8
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Modifié 24 juill. 2019 à 20 h 21
Quoting: blowing_the_zone

I think Random has a solid point, too. The contract difference between these two ex knight linemates probably won't be that much, imo. And Rantanen, Point and Aho probably land close as well. Also curious to see where Connor and Laine land. The grading of this group of players is fairly subjective


That was my whole point of the original post.
Tkachuk will be Marner's term equivalent salary -500k + 1 year.
I did not specify what a Marner deal was here. If you think Tkachuk should get 5@8 (I personally have him as 6@8.5 +/- 500k), you cannot possibly justify paying Marner more than 9 (+/- 500k) especially with Aho 5@8.45.
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24 juill. 2019 à 20 h 22
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Quoting: Random2152
That was my whole point of the original post.
Tkachuk will be Marner's term equivalent salary -500k + 1 year.
I did not specify what a Marner deal was here. If you think Tkachuk should get 5@8 (I personally have him as 6@8.5), you cannot possibly justify paying Marner more than 9 (especially with Aho 5@8.45).


Yep. I think this is the rub of it. The way I see it is these rfas can't have it both ways. Contracts are either based on league comparables or they're based on comparables to output relative to their team.

So, Marner makes a case that he comes in comparable to AM. Fine. Tkachuk then makes Marner his comparable? Doesn't make sense to me.. by that logic he should be compared to his Calgary teammates and he'll end up coming in at Johnny Hockey/Sean Monohan money/percentage of cap.

This logic is kinda silly and if Marner didn't play for the leafs this argument would be laughed off as it should.

But if the argument is valid, then I'd trade Marner at AM money for Tkachuck at Gaudreau money all day. Of course, value doesn't work like that...
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25 juill. 2019 à 15 h 25
#12
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The problem is the Matthews Contract is way overpriced, and that's why people think that Marner is a 8 figure player, because they lot them in the same category, and because its Toronto....

Matthews - 11'634'000 / 73 points last season = $159000 per point (way overpaid) ($132'000 per goal if you say he plays a full season at the same scoring pace)
Tavares - 11'000'000 / 88 points last season = $125000 per point (overpaid? as toronto likes to do)
Mcdavid - 12'500'000 /116 points last season = $107000 per point
Ovechkin - 9'538'462 / 89 points last season = $107000 per point
Kane - 10'500'000 / 110 points last season = $95000 per point
Crosby - 8'700'000 / 100 points last season = $87'000 per point (older contract)
Draisaitl - 8'500'000 / 105 points last season = $81000 per point (bargin)
Kucherov - 9'500'000 / 128 points last season = $74218 per point (wayyy bargin)
Gaudreau - 6'750'000 / 99 points last season = $68'000 per point (older contract)

Is it fair to say $100'000 per point is on pace for what most of these players are worth at the moment?

Marner - 9'200'000? / 92 points last season = $100'000 per point?
Tkachuk - 7'700'000? / 77 points last season = $100'000 per point?

i didnt even include some serious bargin players in there that throw the current metric out the window ( Marchand, Mackinnon, Stamkos, Barkov)

let me know of what you think of a standard cost per point metric?
25 juill. 2019 à 17 h 44
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Quoting: Jungo
The problem is the Matthews Contract is way overpriced, and that's why people think that Marner is a 8 figure player, because they lot them in the same category, and because its Toronto....

Matthews - 11'634'000 / 73 points last season = $159000 per point (way overpaid) ($132'000 per goal if you say he plays a full season at the same scoring pace)
Tavares - 11'000'000 / 88 points last season = $125000 per point (overpaid? as toronto likes to do)
Mcdavid - 12'500'000 /116 points last season = $107000 per point
Ovechkin - 9'538'462 / 89 points last season = $107000 per point
Kane - 10'500'000 / 110 points last season = $95000 per point
Crosby - 8'700'000 / 100 points last season = $87'000 per point (older contract)
Draisaitl - 8'500'000 / 105 points last season = $81000 per point (bargin)
Kucherov - 9'500'000 / 128 points last season = $74218 per point (wayyy bargin)
Gaudreau - 6'750'000 / 99 points last season = $68'000 per point (older contract)

Is it fair to say $100'000 per point is on pace for what most of these players are worth at the moment?

Marner - 9'200'000? / 92 points last season = $100'000 per point?
Tkachuk - 7'700'000? / 77 points last season = $100'000 per point?

i didnt even include some serious bargin players in there that throw the current metric out the window ( Marchand, Mackinnon, Stamkos, Barkov)

let me know of what you think of a standard cost per point metric?


I think it'd be fascinating to be a fly on the wall during rfa contract negotiations to see how both sides arrive at their number. Ufas would be different in that teams can just outbid each other based on wants/needs/ budget etc.

But with rfas you can bet that teams have all sorts of metrics that come into play based on what they prioritize and comparables from around the league. What you put together is a neat example of what one example could look like.

And then it just gets more complex from there. It's not hard to imagine that there's way, way more to it then how even the best posters here rationalize arguments for example contract numbers. Spreadsheets can be a wonderful and troubling tool for tracking things..
 
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