Yeah buy out 2 of their three good defenseman!

This already aged poorly

Im honestly a little sad i missed out on replying to this when it happened... but yeah this was a fleece by the oilers. neal is going to put up ridiculous points in edmonton this year.

I think we're all forgetting the silver lining to the trade:

While Neal is close to passing his goal total from last year, Lucic is on pace to pass his PIM total from last year too.

Yet ANOTHER example of how you shouldn't judge a trade immediately

Flames win easily, and it's not even that close.

Well Edmonton looked like they won this after year 1, but now looks like Flames win it

I fully believe Edmonton is still winning the Lucic-Neal swap but have lost the trade due to still being required to transfer a 3rd round pick. A quick comparison since the trade:

Neal (84GP): 24G - 17A - 41P (-22) 23PIM
Lucic (124GP): 18G - 25A - 43P (-14) 100PIM

I wanted to just do a quick statistical analysis of what both men have done since the trade. They have performed about equally, but all rates suggest James is still outperforming Milan given that he's put up identical production in about two-thirds the total games. There's merit there.

However, I'm not oblivious to the fact that Neal is all but guaranteed to be bought out this offseason or shipped out via other means. There's an opportunity for Lucic to pull ahead in this 'race' and truly make this a Flames' win (I'm glad he regained some form tbh, never want to see a player from my formative years just utterly drop off). This comes with its own major caveat: what happens if Lucic's season next year is absolutely abysmal? I mean like mind-numbingly bad? Would he still be considered the 'better player' because the Flames weren't wise enough to cut bait when some of that value was recaptured? Can we give Edmonton a 'win' in this case if Neal finishes the better producer over this period AND the Oilers were wise enough to walk away from the player when it was time?

A lot of this goes out the window next year if Lucic has another decent season, which is still a possibility. I just don't agree that this is a cut-and-dry Flames win: it's still relatively even that's only being pushed in the Flames' direction because of the draft picks. There's opportunity to suggest a more definitive conclusion next year but that requires Lucic maintaining form. If Milan is actual dog poo next season and costs the Flames a playoff berth/series and the Oilers opted to cut bait on Neal this offseason, I don't think I'll change my stance. Take the pick out and Edmonton wins the deal, even if both clubs got good and bad years out of their player.

That statistical comparison of them you did just proved my point pretty much.

How so? That Neal produces the same as Lucic in two-thirds the required games played? That neither man is a defensive stalwart? That Lucic spends more time being a detriment in terms of taking penalties? Only 45min of those PIMs are fighting majors: over half of his penalties are likely 'not good penalties'.

If anything, a reasonable person would think they contradict your point.

Exactly. Neal played in a bit over two-thirds of the amount of games, and he still had 2 less points. And Lucic is more physical. And he even had a better plus-minus.

Do you smell toast?

Points to the physicality and +/- (damn flawed stat) but you've absolutely lost the plot if you think Neal producing the same in less games is a negative. It's very much a positive for the Oilers. I can maybe understand if your thought process is more 'Calgary got more games played value out of Lucic' but such a comparison seems a touch unfair. Neal broke his foot to no fault of his own or of the Oilers and ended up with Covid or some other illness prior to this season's start.

The thing is, while Neal might be slightly better offensively, when he's not scoring he's not an effective player.

Lucic is still a very effective grinder if he's not scoring.

Therefore, I would take Lucic over Neal easily (don't forget his cap hit is slightly less too).

But you made some good points for sure. I think the "winner" of this trade could change in the future.

The only point I'd make against yours - which I otherwise agree with - is that the league notoriously inflates stats like hits, and most of the ones that actually happen (something like every 9/10 hits) don't actually do anything to affect possession or are in fact detrimental by taking a player out of optimal positioning. The phrase "effective grinder" is essentially an oxymoron unless the player in question is actively scoring or has a high rate of forcing turnovers, something Lucic has neither of.

Milan's been above replacement level, but not by a large margin. Neal's cooked, which I don't think anyone would argue at this point. The question really comes down to whether or not Lucic repeats the successes of this season or finds himself in likewise decline.

Game's played is important aswell, and it's not like Neal's been injured much.

He broke his foot, had some sort of respiratory complication to start this season (possibly covid?), and I believe there was a hand injury in there somewhere.

His injuries don't make up the entire difference in games lost in comparison to Lucic, but most of them are. Neal's a player Tippett liked having on the roster over Ennis, Nygard, a spare defenceman, you name it. Neal probably only 'earned' half a dozen actual healthy scratches when he was fit to play.

Ok I forgot about that.

I mostly agree with you.

Neither team really "won" this trade so we can all stop with the "who won debate" lol.

but if from strictly a monetary perspective, Oilers will win this trade by buying Neal out IMO. The options should really be Oilers win if they buy out Neal. Cgy wins if Lucic finds his game again. IMHO Lucic hasn't found his game yet even though having a better season this year.

This was a hail Mary from both teams and even at its best outcome is still sort of a fail at the end of the day. The less stinky turd out of the two is still a turd.

Calgary won this trade and it's not even close.

Lucic has been a decent bottom 6er in Calgary. Neal is not an NHL player, and he is providing the oilers with dead cap. The flames win this trade.

Lol really? A year later? I mean... hindsight is 20/20. At the time, this was still a swap of bad contracts and frankly still is. Lucic despite playing better is still incredibly overpaid for what he does. CGY got a player they can use, EDM got out from actual money and cap. Lucic is dead cap also because he's being paid way more than he's worth for 3 years counting.

To be honest, I think this is still an even deal. Both teams got what they wanted. Both teams had different needs.

I thought it was a bit more recent for some reason. I have replied to far older posts in the trade forums though lol. I don't think the outlook has changed much recently anyways though.

I suppose it is debatable because yes, the oilers did gain cap space. For the record, at the time I though Edmonton won this trade because it seemed like Neal was going to be the better player, but he wasn't. I think calling this a win-win is a pretty fair take.

We won this trade because we don't have to watch Lucic try to skate anymore

No we didn't.

And let it go already lol

The flames defintely won it. Though to be fair, it's more of a "who lost less" trade.