The trades are fine but the cap isn’t. 21 players and an. Underpaid marner won’t fly.

Its 2 x 8M....highest AAV bridge ever....

as for OP : with the 1st rounder you will need to hunt someone that has signed ELC at least over 2019/2020 to be Cap compliant.....and dont jump into safe zone with Hyman and Dermott on LTIR......keep them in cause makes no sense kicking ppl out after they come back...

It is a fine term/aav... probably more than he deserves. But he won’t sign it if he’s playing the hurt feeling’s card about how much money Matthews is making.

Toronto wouldn't trade Kapanen for those picks even if they were the 2019 version. The Maple Leafs need immediate help at RhD.

Something's gotta give here...
I can't imagine a team in the league offer-sheeting Marner only to give up four 1st round picks for a winger who isn't even a top 3 winger in the league.

This is why I think he either signs a deal that helps the Leafs (in the short term anyway) or....sits out part of the season and has a similar season to what Nylander just finished with.

I'm interested in hearing what @TanSor, @palhal, @blowing_the_zone, @Trickster have to say particularly about teams possibly shying away from the offer sheet idea and Marner maybe facing the decision to sit out part of the season vs signing a deal that works for the Leafs.

There is far too much thought given that so many RFA will get an offer sheet.

How many offer sheets have been made in the last 10 years?
Not as many as have been proposed for sure.

In reality it is much more likely that someone like Kapanen gets an offer sheet and maybe even Johnsson.


If we can add Myers at that term, I like it.
I think his cap hit should be closer to 5 though but that's just me.

It's amazing that it seems virtually ONLY the Leafs will be subject to an offer sheet. Virtually all teams have RFAs and this season there are many high priced RFAs getting their first RFA contracts.
Teams shy away from other sheets because, they would have to overpay in salary to get one to sign an offer sheet. Why overpay? Overpay for a UFA (in possible) and keep your picks. Even if a team has cap to sign a big RFA,,,these teams might have their own RFAs to sign, to they want to start overpaying all their RFAs on their team (though the Leafs have set their own precedent).

The list of teams that would even offer sheet an expensive is few. Cap space, availability of compensatory picks, salary structure of the own team. Plus we don't look at the player. He might not even want to sign an offer sheet that would pay him a few dollars more. Maybe he likes his team, city, his situation where he is. Imagine if Aho or Marner...name the RFA who changed teams with an offer sheet. Let's say it's Jersey. The pressure that player would be under, the four first rounders, trying to avoid lottery picks, and trying "on your own" making that team a winner.

As a Leaf fan, wouldn't want to lose Marner to an offer sheet. But it's really not that devastating. Leafs would just spend the 10m they set aside Marner on other players almost immediately. Then you hope you have a young, good cheap pipeline of players with those four picks.

If Marner decides to not resign with Leafs before October 1st (remember he free to sign with thousands of teams world wide including NHL teams), I think it means he is going the route of being a UFA in four years. So Marner has the decision to make, do I want to give up long term security for eventually accepting short term deals ......like Trouba.
Unlike Trouba, I gotta believe Marner would prefer to be a life time Leaf. He has seen the life time benefits bestowed on Leafs. Is that worth sacrificing some money now? Marner has that decision to make.

My take is what we're witnessing right now is contract negotiations that are playing out in the media. Shanny has been on the record saying that there is nothing to be gained from taking this to media, and yet it seems that Dreger has more fuel to add to the fire ever few weeks. Why?

I'd say this is a tactic from Marner's camp where they leak info to gauge the response from the fanbase to see how far they can take things. And if the response on this site is any idication, then I'd say the majority of Leaf fans aren't buyin this Marner =12 M nonsense. IIRC, the Ferris/Feshwick article stating that Marner wants AM money broke right after AM signed his contract. And the Ferris was yammering on about how he doesn't want to negotiate in season because he didn't want the distraction for Mitch... yeah,right...

In the flurry of Marner trades/OS agms yesterday a poster had an interesting insight that he thought this BS is coming less from Mitch and more from his Dad and Ferris i.e. the Jack Johnson dynamic.. that makes alot of sense to me. And if that's true, it'd make sense for Mitch to take control of this nonsense before it has a damaging effect on his career and repuation (it might be too late on the later)..

So, I really think this OS stuff is a bluff, and it'll get called in time. I doubt very much that an OS will ever happen, because he'll be traded before that's an option. And the more that I embrace that as a possibility the more I can see how trading Marner could be the best option for the leafs.. fixes the cap, gets assets back, removes a potential problematic ego .. who then likely goes on to sign a contract with another team that was similiar to what the leafs were offering...

and if Marner goes on to sign a less than 10M aav contract with another team, well, will he ever come across as looking like a greedy, not so smart, pouty, lil ass...

Add to Blowing above. Nylander apparently was asking for the ridiculous 8.5m....and "settled" for 7m, still too high when looking at league comparables. So if Marner is asking for 12m, it's kinda meaningles in reality, but it is negotiation. And then he gets media hog, trying to be relevant Dreger to do his public negotiation.. So going by the Nylander negotiation is Marner going to be happy with 10 to 10.5m?

I'll disagree with Blowing above. I think the Leafs won't trade Marner. They will challenge teams to make that offer sheet, since there are so few teams that can/would actually make an offer sheet.

Looking long term. If Marner has an life time NHL career where he makes 120m if he signs with another teams (s). If he has to "settle" for 100m if he plays life time with the Leafs would he be happier? I think that is what Marner is deciding. Millions of working people in North American sacrifice money for "happiness". They don't change their work locations or shifts or cities because of various reasons they prefer to stay with the status quo. Pro athletes have the same thoughts.

Good points, Pal. And it makes sense.

Especially the part about "So if Marner is asking for 12m, it's kinda meaningles in reality, but it is negotiation" ...

It really isn't reality right now, and I'd say it's a bunch of smoke and mirrors coming from Ferris and the media knuckleheads (I like that term media hog as well..). And when I look at it that way, this is less of a reflection on Marner and what he's "worth" and more a reflection of the absurdness of the media knuckleheads/hogs..

that line about "first we kill all the lawyers" is pretty spot on, but definitely penned before player agents and media hogs were a part of the scene..

To add here, these are contract negotiations. It is ALWAYS in a players best interest to ask for the highest possible amount that they can, but that doesn't mean it will be the end price. Marner can shoot for the moon and ask for 12, but the fact is he isn't worth more than 10 (at least in my opinion).

GMs are generally pretty averse towards offer sheets. Sure there's a good amount of teams that could do it, but that doesn't mean they will. It's a pretty good way to sully a reputation with another GM since it shows you're willing to go behind their back to try and "steal" one of their players. They get talked about all the time but the reality is they're pretty rare. You're giving up draft picks (valuable assets) to likely overpay a player and also damage a reputation with another league executive. The only positive is that you get a player you like... I think the Marner camp "threatening" to sign one is just smoke and mirrors.

As for a trade, I think Dubas should at least consider moving Marner. It's never good to be close-minded, you want to keep your doors open. Now, if I'm the Leafs GM I do everything I can to try and keep him, but trading Marner could solve a lot of problems. Otherwise maybe you look at moving Nylander to save space. Kadri is certainly an option but I don't think the Leafs will get that top pairing RD they need out of a Kadri trade. I think the Leafs offense will be just fine with or without Marner or Nylander as long as Matthew's and Tavares are anchoring the center positions in the top 6. Watching that defense this year its pretty horrendous compared to my favorite hockey club (who has an extremely horrendous offense). The Leafs really do need a top pairing RD.

At the end of the day if Marner won't budge from his asking price, I say Dubas should cut the ties and try to fix that right side of the D.

Solid assessment, Tansor. I agree with pretty much all of that.

TML are / shouldnt be in no rush, cause till Marleau on payroll it will be just another season to suck it up. The run for Cup starts with 2020/2021 Season, so this year "Cap dumps" only should be made in form of Kadri and Brown ( im in Kadri trading camp, where he should still bring in 1st and a B prospect )

TML will hunt for RHD in next offseason when $$ gate open up. For this year they should maybe land B level Defenceman ( as the one we have in Zaitsev already ) to fill first Pair, so names like Larsson and Miller come to mind, maybe if Gudas as rental will come cheap, those contracts can be squeezed into the current situation, ofc based on how Marner situation will pull out.

Okay so all of you guys made some very good points regarding the Marner contract.
Here is what I don't understand...why should he get 9million, nevermind the 12million he is asking for?

Honestly, 8million seems like the most reasonable number because is he better than Nylander? Yes
Does the 8million reflect that? Yes

Is he better than Matthews/Tavares? No
Does the 8million salary reflect that? Yes
I can't believe the 9million range is what most people think Marner should get.

Because he's a 21 (just turned 22) year old that scored 94 points this year... He hasn't reached his ceiling yet and still has room to grow.

If you're able, give this article a read. There's a paywall, though

I am over joyed to read the above, some real insightful reading.

Great job at the following people for breaking it down

@palhal, @blowing_the_zone , @tansor, @laudan , @onex