Quoting: capsin9
Fair enough. So who’s your odd man out if Marner get 11-12 million. Obviously hypothetical. I’m assuming brown but if it has to be aj or kap since you won’t move nylander.
TL;DR:
The only players that need to move are Connor Brown and Maybe Zaitzev.
There is no reason for Marner to get more than 10.~ and realistically there is no reason he should get more than 9.5 (but there is a good chance he will).
Basically I see Marner as (from
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1071453):
Marner options (Purely done by math):
8@11.616
7@10.866
6@10.116
5@9.366
4@8.616
3@8.241
2@7.866
1@7.491
Marner's Realistic Options (Rounded and/or added important numbers):
6@10.116
3@8.293
3@8.250
3@8.216
You have to remember that before the Matthews contract was signed (like the day before) Marner was asking for 8@9.5aav (reportedly).
Kapanen is good friends with Nylander and is reportedly very open to a team friendly bridge deal, so he might get a 2 year deal as low as the Hyman contract aav (slight discount), but I tend to estimate him as 2@2.75aav.
Johnsson is reportedly less team friendly (he took his QA to get a bigger contract this year) and his point totals are a bit less than Kapanen, but his play has been better (imo), so I put him around 3-4@2.75-3 (If he goes longer, he'd be looking for ~4aav).
That Leaves us with (contracts I estimate have the term included in the numbers):
Hyman(2.25)-JT(11)-Marner(?)
Johnsson(3@2.75)-Papi(11.634)-Nylander(6.962)
Marleau(6.25)-Kadri(4.5)-Kapanen(?)
Marlie(1@0.874)-Goat(0.675)-Moore(0.775)
Petan(0.775)
Muzzin(4)-Zaitzev(4.5)
Rielly(5)-Dermott(0.863)
Rosen (0.750)-Marlie/UFA(1@850)
Holl(0.675) <----- (could be the 3RD)
Andersen(5)
Sparks(0.750)
Roster size: 22
Forwards hit: 48.445 (w/o Mitch and Kappy)
Defence hit: 16.638
Goalies hit: 5.75
Total hit: 70.833 (w/o Mitch and Kappy)
Expected cap: 83-84.5 (If NHL underestimated by same margin as last year, could go as high as 84.5)
Cap Space: 12.167 - 13.667 <--- Space to sign Kappy + Marner
So if mitch gets the 6 year deal at 10.116, that leaves Kappy with 2.051 under an 83 mil cap. If the cap goes higher or mitch takes a touch less (say 6@9.5) then everything is fine cap wise.