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Nylander...thoughts: let's try this again

Créé par: The_Architect
Équipe: 2018-19 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 15 sept. 2018
Publié: 15 sept. 2018
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Transactions
MTL
    Nylander
    TOR
    1. Gallagher, Brendan (1 000 000 $ retained)
    Rachats de contrats
    Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
    Repêchage1e ronde2e ronde3e ronde4e ronde5e ronde6e ronde7e ronde
    2019
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de CBJ
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de CGY
    Logo de CHI
    Logo de EDM
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de WPG
    2020
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de WPG
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    2021
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    Logo de MTL
    TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
    2579 500 000 $69 687 975 $0 $2 032 500 $9 812 025 $
    Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
    5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 5
    3 900 000 $3 900 000 $
    C, AD
    UFA - 4
    4 800 000 $4 800 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 3
    3 083 333 $3 083 333 $
    C
    UFA - 3
    1 850 000 $1 850 000 $
    AD, AG
    UFA - 1
    3 150 000 $3 150 000 $
    C, AD
    UFA - 2
    2 250 000 $2 250 000 $ (Bonis de performance1 250 000 $$1M)
    C
    UFA - 1
    863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance175 000 $$175K)
    AG, AD
    UFA - 1
    1 166 667 $1 166 667 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 1
    1 300 000 $1 300 000 $
    AG, C
    UFA - 2
    950 000 $950 000 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 2
    900 000 $900 000 $
    C, AG
    UFA - 2
    839 166 $839 166 $
    AG, AD
    UFA - 1
    650 000 $650 000 $
    C, AG, AD
    UFA - 1
    Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
    4 625 000 $4 625 000 $
    DG
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    7 857 143 $7 857 143 $
    DD
    UFA - 8
    10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
    G
    NMC
    UFA - 8
    2 100 000 $2 100 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 2
    5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
    DD
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 3
    950 000 $950 000 $
    G
    UFA - 1
    1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
    DG/DD
    UFA - 1
    863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance425 000 $$425K)
    DD
    UFA - 2
    748 333 $748 333 $ (Bonis de performance182 500 $$182K)
    DG/DD
    UFA - 2
    725 000 $725 000 $
    DG
    UFA - 1
    700 000 $700 000 $
    DG/DD
    UFA - 1

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    15 sept. 2018 à 21 h 53
    #1
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    Not worth it
    PriceIsRite a aimé ceci.
    15 sept. 2018 à 22 h 0
    #2
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    Quoting: Greatestgame22
    Not worth it


    How so?
    15 sept. 2018 à 22 h 1
    #3
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    Quoting: The_Architect
    How so?


    Gallagher is better that Nylander
    15 sept. 2018 à 22 h 46
    #4
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    Quoting: Greatestgame22
    Gallagher is better that Nylander


    I'd like to hear leafs fans' opinion on that. Should be interesting.
    16 sept. 2018 à 7 h 12
    #5
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    Pathetic.
    16 sept. 2018 à 8 h 28
    #6
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    Quoting: drewjenks
    Pathetic.


    Gallagher at 2.75 mill for the next 3 yrs is pathetic?
    16 sept. 2018 à 9 h 3
    #7
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    Quoting: The_Architect
    Gallagher at 2.75 mill for the next 3 yrs is pathetic?


    No the trade is.

    So much more value would need to be extracted from this trade
    16 sept. 2018 à 9 h 12
    #8
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    Quoting: drewjenks
    No the trade is.

    So much more value would need to be extracted from this trade


    "So much more value"? The 5 million you're saving on cap is the value.
    16 sept. 2018 à 9 h 35
    #9
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    I don't mind it from a talent-for-talent and dollar-value standpoint, but I worry about the heart-and-soul question in Montreal. I would have hoped the Habs would have learned something from what happens when they traded away capable scrappers like Darcy Tucker, Mike Keane and Claude Lemieux. They never quite recovered. I like Nylander and thing he's is an excellent talent, but there's more to a successful hockey team than smooth skating and advanced stats.
    The_Architect a aimé ceci.
    16 sept. 2018 à 11 h 58
    #10
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    Fair trade.
    16 sept. 2018 à 12 h 49
    #11
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    Modifié 16 sept. 2018 à 12 h 56
    Quoting: The_Architect
    "So much more value"? The 5 million you're saving on cap is the value.


    Agreed. They'll definitely be some cap savings.

    But Nylander won't realistically get over $7,000,000.

    Ehlers ($6,000,000 x 7) and Larkin ($6,100,000 x 5) are his best comparable's (both contracts start this year).

    A fair assumption for Nylander's contract is probably in the range of $6,500,000 x 6 years (I'll use this below).

    So if we're assessing the value of both players (including contracts):

    1. Gallagher (at $2,750,000) saves $3,750,000 in cap-space. PLUS
    2. Gallagher becomes a UFA after 3 seasons vs Nylander's 6. MINUS
    3. Gallagher may not re-sign (even if he does, UFA contracts are expensive). MINUS
    4. Gallagher has an injury history - Nylander has never been injured. MINUS
    5. Gallagher is 26 years old - Nylander is only 22 years old. MINUS
    6. Gallagher is in his prime - Nylander still has huge upside potential. MINUS
    7. Gallagher has a 54 point career high - Nylander's career low is 61 points. MINUS
    8. Gallagher has a career average 0.58 points per game - Nylander's is 0.75. MINUS
    9. Gallagher has no proven chemistry with Matthews - Nylander does. MINUS
    10. Gallagher definitely can't play center - Nylander might be a good center. MINUS

    Overall, the cap savings provide a lot of value (and so do Gallagher's intangibles).

    But the value is almost completely offset by Gallagher's age, limited upside, 3 year term, and UFA expiry status.

    With that considered: Nylander is the better player now and has the potential to be a much better player down the road.

    For these reasons, I think the Leafs deserve more value (assets) from the trade.
    16 sept. 2018 à 16 h 7
    #12
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    Quoting: drewjenks
    Agreed. They'll definitely be some cap savings.

    But Nylander won't realistically get over $7,000,000.

    Ehlers ($6,000,000 x 7) and Larkin ($6,100,000 x 5) are his best comparable's (both contracts start this year).

    A fair assumption for Nylander's contract is probably in the range of $6,500,000 x 6 years (I'll use this below).

    So if we're assessing the value of both players (including contracts):

    1. Gallagher (at $2,750,000) saves $3,750,000 in cap-space. PLUS
    2. Gallagher becomes a UFA after 3 seasons vs Nylander's 6. MINUS
    3. Gallagher may not re-sign (even if he does, UFA contracts are expensive). MINUS
    4. Gallagher has an injury history - Nylander has never been injured. MINUS
    5. Gallagher is 26 years old - Nylander is only 22 years old. MINUS
    6. Gallagher is in his prime - Nylander still has huge upside potential. MINUS
    7. Gallagher has a 54 point career high - Nylander's career low is 61 points. MINUS
    8. Gallagher has a career average 0.58 points per game - Nylander's is 0.75. MINUS
    9. Gallagher has no proven chemistry with Matthews - Nylander does. MINUS
    10. Gallagher definitely can't play center - Nylander might be a good center. MINUS

    Overall, the cap savings provide a lot of value (and so do Gallagher's intangibles).

    But the value is almost completely offset by Gallagher's age, limited upside, 3 year term, and UFA expiry status.

    With that considered: Nylander is the better player now and has the potential to be a much better player down the road.

    For these reasons, I think the Leafs deserve more value (assets) from the trade.


    I always appreciate a constructive beakdown. And very fair points for a debate.

    Having said that, there's a couple that I will argue.
    #1 Gallagher's injuries are not classified as "lingering". They were fractures from blocking shots (bad luck).

    #2 IMO you're over-emphasizing Nylander's chemistry with Matthews. It means that Marner will play with Tavares, which they don't have an existing chemistry. But Matthews and Marner do, they can play together since there's familiarity. If Tavares was to play with Gallagher, it would be the same unfamiliarity as Marner.

    #3 Also I'll add that your statement about Gallagher having reached his ceiling is arguable since he never played with a legit #1 C.

    In essence I'm making this trade based on alot of points you made about Nylander's higher potential, and the fact that by the time the Habs are true "contenders", Gallagher will be past him prime. I'm gambling on everything since I'm willing to give Nylander 7+ mill.

    But I'd like to think that if there were ever any true negotiations about this trade, I wouldn't be giving TO much of an edge on leverage, considering the cap situation, IF in fact Nylander is serious about getting Draisaitl type of contract.
     
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