Modifié 18 août 2018 à 11 h 3
Quoting: jp_harvey
There's no signs showing us that Marner will be a bust.
if we're going be stats. Marner fits in well with right wingers 6.7m Pasterak and 7.5m Taresenko assuming Marner goes about 25/50 for75 points. an agent will bring in Draisaitl comparison of course at 8.5m,,,but that isn't the norm. then Dubas counters with hart candidate winger marchand at 6.1m
Marchand became the players he is (offensively) at 28 years of age...Marner is at 20 years of age...apples and oranges
Signing an 8 years contract at age 28 (thru age 36) is sure to see the AAV drop significantly in the latter years of it. If you sign it at age 21, though, you lock all the prime years of the player, which cost a lot and the AAV doesn't drop because of the final 2-3 years...
You're not comparing close to the same situation.
After taking a closer look, J.Gaudreau is a player that fits pretty well the situation of Marner, except he was 2 years older when signing his contract, wasn't a top5 overall picks (like it or not, it still matters for the contract after the ELC), & surely had less GP than Marner when signing his contract (160 for J.G. & 159 for M.M. right now).
So Marner will be compared to Gaudreau 9.25% cap and might get a bit more (9.5-9.6%?). All in all, 9.5% cap amounts to 7.55M$ in '18-'19 or 7.88M$ in '19-'20 (cap at 83M$). So maybe 8 years at 7.75M$ is what he ends up getting.