Maybe you could get a bit more for O’Reilly

Gutsy. Slows down Buffalo's rebuild a little bit to try to time everybody to grow up at the same time. Carolina's 2nd is high enough it's almost a 1st. Whatever the details, centering an O'reilly trade around a younger center with equally high upside makes sense, but getting one with no NHL experience is a huge risk (okay, one takeaway, one giveaway, and four lost faceoffs https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/n/necasma01.html). If Necas, Eichel, and "whoever the Sabres pick this summer" all keep improving together, this team has a longer competitive window than they get by keeping O'Reilly.


True, but you can give the extra to actually get Perreault and Carlson (each of whom is maybe older than the plan you're going for with Necas, but definitely more valuable than what's shown here).

Pick #42 is high enough its almost a first? By that logic nearly half of round 2s picks are close enough to be a first

Youre underselling both players and wasting a ton of money on Carlson (who will probably get more anyway). I have heard a lot of people say stay away to begin with, let alone free agency not being a place to build a team anymore. I would doubt Asplund jumps into the NHL this year but Olofsson should.

I stand corrected on 2nd round lottery effects. Thanks.

Carlson scores an average of 37 points per season. This year he doubled that. On the above contract of 5yrsx7.25M, he'd be a worthwhile gamble on any team. But the remaining three years of the deal he will actually get at 8M or more? Those are going to make him a very rich 34, 35 and 36 year old.

I agree with your main point that a team trading O'Reilly away to get younger doesn't have the greatest need to add UFAs.

Yes Carlson magically doubled his stats in his UFA contract year (also on one of the best teams in the league). Best case scenario, Sabres get 4 good years out of him. Id be suprised if he gets close to the numbers again. Im not saying its a bad contract, Im saying their are dumb GMs out there who will get into a bidding war. The new meta is staying away from high priced UFAs