Explain the incentive for Washington to do this. If we trade Holtby, it has to be for all three of Glass, Suzuki and Brannstrom, plus Theodore and a first. Vegas wouldn’t do it.

Good question. Carlson and Holtby are amazing right now. Theodore and Miller will be an amazing first pair on defense in two years, and should remain that good for five to ten years, initially on cheap RFA contracts, like Carlzner used to be. Plus an NHL ready wing in Hyka, a recent first, and one year's worth of draft picks that Vegas could care less about if it's all in. This one trade completely retools the Caps' defense and leaves them a solid pair of young goalies, with the presumed starter being their all time franchise leader in SPCT and GAA (in the regular season, at least). They get their blueline rebuilt, plus about 10M in cap space and a ton of prospects, without giving up enough to miss this year's playoffs (assuming they rent a right D to play a few more minutes than Bowey is ready for, elsewhere). Or, as I put it above:

"Miller is about 30th in scoring among defensemen but only plays 3rd pair minutes. Theodore plays 2nd pair minutes, but both are young and will keep developing. Hyka is their top scoring AHL winger. Suzuki is a recent 1st. Subban is a top goaltending prospect. The Caps make this deal if they don't think they're likely to win the Cup this year, to limp into the playoffs this year, and take a better crack at it in the next couple years. If they're not going to win it all this year, it doesn't make sense to invest in Carlson's next contract, which could easily top 60M, even if he doesn't go on a points streak and win the Norris."

If you consider that Carlson is currently outscoring P.K. Subban, he could earn 9M next year, or more, and the same for the next eight years. Vegas signs that deal without batting an eyelash, but for the Caps, it means overpaying to create cap space elsewhere, and then struggling to replace players at key spots, and possibly missing the playoffs for a couple years.

Grubauer is good enough to help Washington coast into the playoffs next year, and as the above defense builds experience, it will be good enough to get them deeper next year than they'd get after making more sacrifices to the salary cap.

I agree that as one of the all time leaders in playoff save percentage and a recent Vezina winner, Holtby deserves more of a return, but can you think of another team in the West that would give more without having to face him before the finals?

So the reasons are: cap management, cap management, supply, and demand. As a Caps fan who is fascinated by the rise of Vegas enough to be a bit of a Knights fan, I think this is win-win, because I don't think the Caps win it all this year even with Carlson and Holtby, after all the veterans they lost last summer to keep the roster they had, so it doesn't make sense to give up lots more developing players to keep guys based on who is the best right now, if they're not pretty confident those guys stay great long enough for the whole team to win it all. I think with this one trade at the deadline, and maybe a couple more in the summer of '19, the Caps can just about fully rebuild without ever missing the playoffs.

Basically, then they go rent Green for two 2nds and a couple of AHL duds, and go into this year's playoffs with Grubauer as their starter. They are 90% as good as they were before, which still doesn't look like it's enough to win it all, but with 15M in cap space to re-sign Jay Beagle and some RFAs, and a load of extra picks and prospects.

So it hands Vegas the Cup on a silver platter but, by the time everyone involved signs their contracts next year, it omes out to a 15M cap dump that nets a ton of young talent?

Vegas' incentive is that they only have two right defensemen and their starting goalie, while he's known as a playoff ace, just like Holtby, hasn't won more than 9 playoff games in one season since 2009 (https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/f/fleurma01.html#all_stats_playoffs_nhl). In Holtby's five playoffs, he's won seven, three, six, six, and seven games. If the two of them alternate, they can get a lot further than either one does on their own, the same way that Pittsburgh finally broke through with Fleury the last couple years.

But I'm sure they'd really rather not trade all three of their inaugural first round draft picks to do it.

The Caps are not winning it all this year. But if we are going to win it all in the near future, you need a high end player at each position. Can Grubauer lead us to the Finals? Who knows. Braden Holtby is statistically the best goalie in playoff history. I'm not getting rid of him until Samsonov comes in and takes the job, or if Holtby gets hurt in the playoffs and Grubauer plays exceptionally well. I'm not going to bank on that happening. If that scenario plays out during the playoffs, then I maybe entertain offers on Holtby to see if we can get a massive return. But I'm not trading him now. We can be in a position to win it all in a year or two, as long as our young guys develop properly (notably Djoos, Bowey, Vrana and Burakovsky) and we find some more scoring on the wings.

Trading Carlson now doesn't make sense either. Suggesting he'll get $9M is outrageous. I'm skeptical about paying him more than $6.5M as is, just because this is the first time he's shown this type of offense and it happens to be in a contract year. If we can keep him for around $6.5M, absolutely. If we have to pay him over $7M, I'd let him walk and sign Green for cheaper, shorter term (Bowey then ultimately steps into that role). But right now, keeping Carlson is a priority if we can do it at a reasonable rate. He's the high end defenseman we need to win the Cup (I know what Pittsburgh did last year, and that's the exception not the rule).


The idea of trading either guy right now is basically non-existent, especially Holtby. Somebody would have to massively overpay in terms of future assets for us to consider moving Holtby. That package would have to include a top forward prospect, taking Orpik, and a solid top four defenseman as a starting point.

We agree more than we disagree. You've described the main pieces I have listed above for each playe

top forward prospects: Thomas Hyka is VGK's leading AHL scorer, while Suzuki is one of their 2017 first picks (chosen at random)
taking orpik: done above, for cap space, but also because he won a Cup with Fleury, so Vegas probably sees some immediate value in reuniting them.
solid top four defensemean: Theodore plays 8 seconds shy of 20 minutes a night, in his second season, with a corsi of 52 (in 56% offensive zone starts, okay) and 18 points in 42 games. He's arguably better than Schmidt, and he's only 22, a recent 1st round pick by Anaheim, but he's not nearly as good this year as John Carlson, who plays 25 minutes a night, starts only 47% of his shifts ahead of the red line, and has 47 points.
Then I threw in a year's worth of draft picks, a young defenseman who's in the top 31 of all defensemen in scoring (with like half as many points as Carlson, but Miller's got time, and he'll improve), and a top goaltending prospect.

So, yeah, Hotlby is going for exactly what you said. Carlson is going for another top forward prospect, a young #5 defender with power play experience, and a goalie prospect. Then I added literally one draft pick from each round.

And what's amazing is that, on the other side of this deal, Vegas has even more cap space. They could seriously build a dynasty with a trade like this. If Washington declines, they could afford Lundqvist or Price, or at least Luongo. But I agree with you. Holtby is better, and can command a higher price. Carlson is arguably the best defenseman in the NHL this year, and if the Caps expect to win a Cup in two or three years, they're better off with two young, improving guys who might be in the top ten in three years than with one guy who was top five this year and, I agree, probably it was a fluke that he did so well in his contract year, and his body may not be able to work this hard every year.

True. Holtby was pretty solid in 2018. I still kinda like this one, though.

Bet you're glad we didn't trade two guys who finished top five in Conn Smythe voting.