Forums/NHL

Half way season predictions

7 jan 2018 à 21 h 18
#26
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Those numbers are way too low. I don't know of that website, but it sounds like a stats site, not a prediction site. Maybe with stats and math it works like that, but that can't really predict.


It is a prediction model. Websites like 538 or hockeyviz, use mathematical formulas and applied probabilities and statistics to predict outcomes within their various models. Every model is different of course, as shown here by hockeyviz:

Vegas missing playoffs: 6.00%
Washington winning Presidents trophy: 10.00%
Edmonton making playoffs: 7.00%

The SportsClubStats has Tampa Bay with a 100.00% chance to make the playoffs. That is mathematically impossible for them to have certainty to make the playoffs, but given historical figures and other applied functions, Tampa will most likely make the playoffs, barring a complete meltdown and a rise from the Atlantic division teams.
8 jan 2018 à 10 h 49
#27
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Quoting: krakowitz
Couturier better not win it before Backstrom. He's been long overdue for at least a nomination.


Backstrom doesn't kill penalties, which has been one of the main requirements for past Selke finalists.
8 jan 2018 à 10 h 52
#28
rangersandislesfan
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
It is a prediction model. Websites like 538 or hockeyviz, use mathematical formulas and applied probabilities and statistics to predict outcomes within their various models. Every model is different of course, as shown here by hockeyviz:

Vegas missing playoffs: 6.00%
Washington winning Presidents trophy: 10.00%
Edmonton making playoffs: 7.00%

The SportsClubStats has Tampa Bay with a 100.00% chance to make the playoffs. That is mathematically impossible for them to have certainty to make the playoffs, but given historical figures and other applied functions, Tampa will most likely make the playoffs, barring a complete meltdown and a rise from the Atlantic division teams.


I never said Tampa misses the playoffs ... and they put those numbers way too low. Even if the Knights make the playoffs they can't have a 94% chance yet.
8 jan 2018 à 10 h 52
#29
rangersandislesfan
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And also Tampa can't get 100% yet, though maybe like 99
8 jan 2018 à 10 h 54
#30
Habs
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
It is a prediction model. Websites like 538 or hockeyviz, use mathematical formulas and applied probabilities and statistics to predict outcomes within their various models. Every model is different of course, as shown here by hockeyviz:

Vegas missing playoffs: 6.00%
Washington winning Presidents trophy: 10.00%
Edmonton making playoffs: 7.00%

The SportsClubStats has Tampa Bay with a 100.00% chance to make the playoffs. That is mathematically impossible for them to have certainty to make the playoffs, but given historical figures and other applied functions, Tampa will most likely make the playoffs, barring a complete meltdown and a rise from the Atlantic division teams.


It reads 100% for Tampa, but when you click on it you see they rounded from 99.992
8 jan 2018 à 10 h 55
#31
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Backstrom doesn't kill penalties, which has been one of the main requirements for past Selke finalists.


32 minutes, of PK time ON, 206 minutes of PK OFF for Backstrom
edit: 13.44% of PK is played with Backstrom

128 minutes of PK time ON, 96 minutes of PK OFF for Couturier
edit: 57.14% of PK is played with Couturier
8 jan 2018 à 10 h 56
#32
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
And also Tampa can't get 100% yet, though maybe like 99


I explained why the 100% rounded is mathematically incorrect.
8 jan 2018 à 10 h 57
#33
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
I never said Tampa misses the playoffs ... and they put those numbers way too low. Even if the Knights make the playoffs they can't have a 94% chance yet.


Vegas is something like 18-0-1 when scoring first. They are legit. Perpetual "flukes" like this don't happen.
8 jan 2018 à 11 h 01
#34
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Quoting: OpaqueZoo
It reads 100% for Tampa, but when you click on it you see they rounded from 99.992


So yeah. I just took the rounded data. The 0.008% represents the mathematical and historical chance that Tampa doesn't make the playoffs. @rangersandislesfan
8 jan 2018 à 11 h 24
#35
Blues GM v4
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Backstrom doesn't kill penalties, which has been one of the main requirements for past Selke finalists.


He does kill penalties...
8 jan 2018 à 11 h 35
#36
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Quoting: krakowitz
He does kill penalties...


http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWiPK/1718/WSH/backsni87/wrap ---> amount of time Backstrom is on the PK (32 minutes or 13.44% of aggregate team PK time)
http://www.hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocDefWoPK/1718/WSH/backsni87/wrap---> amount of time Backstrom isn't on the PK (206 minutes or 86.56% of aggregate team PK time)
8 jan 2018 à 12 h 50
#37
rangersandislesfan
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
So yeah. I just took the rounded data. The 0.008% represents the mathematical and historical chance that Tampa doesn't make the playoffs. @rangersandislesfan


alright, from me they still get like a 1% chance, but yeah, unlikely.
About the Knights, because they're still in their first season, well teams get 60 point seasons ... they're half-way through the season and coming into the season they were expected to get about 60 in the whole season ... let's say they were to get 30 points in the 2nd half, which would be an average of 60 in the whole season. So that could happen which would give them 90 points which would likely be a playoff team but they definitely could miss the playoffs. They could make it too but they could miss. I think they come close but i don't think they're gonna get in.
8 jan 2018 à 13 h 01
#38
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
alright, from me they still get like a 1% chance, but yeah, unlikely.
About the Knights, because they're still in their first season, well teams get 60 point seasons ... they're half-way through the season and coming into the season they were expected to get about 60 in the whole season ... let's say they were to get 30 points in the 2nd half, which would be an average of 60 in the whole season. So that could happen which would give them 90 points which would likely be a playoff team but they definitely could miss the playoffs. They could make it too but they could miss. I think they come close but i don't think they're gonna get in.


Where are you getting the "30 points in the 2nd half" figure? Are you just guessing because you don't want to accept the fact that they'll make the playoffs?
8 jan 2018 à 18 h 19
#39
rangersandislesfan
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Where are you getting the "30 points in the 2nd half" figure? Are you just guessing because you don't want to accept the fact that they'll make the playoffs?


How many points did you think they'd have coming into the 2nd season?
9 jan 2018 à 10 h 19
#40
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
How many points did you think they'd have coming into the 2nd season?


No more than 70. But after having seen them play and realizing that this team is the real deal, I don't see them just flat out collapsing in the second half, barring any major injuries. This team has gelled very nicely and they're going to finish in a top 3 spot in their division, especially with how bad the rest of the Pacific has looked.
9 jan 2018 à 14 h 14
#41
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Atlantic
1. Tampa Bay
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. Detroit
5. Florida
6. Montreal
7. Ottawa
8. Buffalo

Metropolitan
1. Washington
2. Columbus
3. New Jersey
4. Pittsburgh - W1
5. Philadelphia - W2
6. Carolina
7. New York Rangers
8. New York Islanders

Central
1. Winnipeg
2. Dallas
3. St. Louis
4. Nashville - W1
5. Colorado - W2
6. Chicago
7. Minnesota

Pacific
1. Vegas (Presidents Trophy)
2. Los Angeles
3. Anaheim
4. San Jose
5. Edmonton
6. Calgary
7. Vancouver
8. Arizona

Playoffs:
Round 1:
TBL vs PHI (TBL in 5)
BOS vs TOR (TOR in 7)
WSH vs PIT (WSH in 4)
CBJ vs NJD (NJD in 7)

VGK vs COL (VGK in 5)
LAK vs ANA (ANA in 7)
WPG vs NSH (NSH in 6)
DAL vs STL (STL in 7)

Round 2:
TBL vs TOR (TBL in 6)
WSH vs NJD (WSH in 7)

VGK vs ANA (ANA in 5)
NSH vs STL (STL in 7)

Round 3:
TBL vs WSH (WSH in 7)

ANA vs STL (STL in 7)

Round 4:
WSH vs STL (STL in 6)

As a Lightning fan, this would disappoint me, I do feel Tampa is the best team in the east by a significant margin, but Ovechkin just always seems to go on a tear against Tampa.
Vegas has an amazing home record (no surprise) but the second the playoffs start, and all teams shift into focus mode. A true contender will tear them apart. St. Louis, once they get fully healthy, was a dominant force with that top line of Schwartz, Schenn, and Tarasenko. They're gonna face a lot of stiff competition this year, the west is far better than the east this year outside of Tampa, even though Washington and Boston seem to be surging. I just think whoever comes out of the east is gonna face a new level of competition once they get to the final and it'll all be about how they react.
9 jan 2018 à 17 h 43
#42
rangersandislesfan
Rejoint: mar 2017
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Quoting: loganreid
Atlantic
1. Tampa Bay
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. Detroit
5. Florida
6. Montreal
7. Ottawa
8. Buffalo

Metropolitan
1. Washington
2. Columbus
3. New Jersey
4. Pittsburgh - W1
5. Philadelphia - W2
6. Carolina
7. New York Rangers
8. New York Islanders

Central
1. Winnipeg
2. Dallas
3. St. Louis
4. Nashville - W1
5. Colorado - W2
6. Chicago
7. Minnesota

Pacific
1. Vegas (Presidents Trophy)
2. Los Angeles
3. Anaheim
4. San Jose
5. Edmonton
6. Calgary
7. Vancouver
8. Arizona

Playoffs:
Round 1:
TBL vs PHI (TBL in 5)
BOS vs TOR (TOR in 7)
WSH vs PIT (WSH in 4)
CBJ vs NJD (NJD in 7)

VGK vs COL (VGK in 5)
LAK vs ANA (ANA in 7)
WPG vs NSH (NSH in 6)
DAL vs STL (STL in 7)

Round 2:
TBL vs TOR (TBL in 6)
WSH vs NJD (WSH in 7)

VGK vs ANA (ANA in 5)
NSH vs STL (STL in 7)

Round 3:
TBL vs WSH (WSH in 7)

ANA vs STL (STL in 7)

Round 4:
WSH vs STL (STL in 6)

As a Lightning fan, this would disappoint me, I do feel Tampa is the best team in the east by a significant margin, but Ovechkin just always seems to go on a tear against Tampa.
Vegas has an amazing home record (no surprise) but the second the playoffs start, and all teams shift into focus mode. A true contender will tear them apart. St. Louis, once they get fully healthy, was a dominant force with that top line of Schwartz, Schenn, and Tarasenko. They're gonna face a lot of stiff competition this year, the west is far better than the east this year outside of Tampa, even though Washington and Boston seem to be surging. I just think whoever comes out of the east is gonna face a new level of competition once they get to the final and it'll all be about how they react.




I doubt Vegas wins the presidents' trophy.
 
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