Trade Idea - Read Description

Dreiger and Mrazek (without retention) are on near identical contracts, and both are coming off severely disappointing seasons. Prior to this past year, Mrazek was the better goalie. Dreiger had a slightly better year this year (.888 for Mrazek compared to a .899 from Dreiger. Mrazek played behind a better defensive team but Seattle was alright defensively this year in terms of quality and quantity chances against). Both goalies need a fresh start it seems, so a swap makes sense.

While the gap in player value directly is rather small, slightly favouring Dreiger, with retained salary of 1.25 mil for 2 years; there is now a larger gap in value. Based on what we’ve seen, 1.50 mil for 2 years is worth a tad more 2 4th rounders in value, so I’ll estimate it at a 3rd and 4th rounder. The gap from moving from pick 25 to pick 35 as shown here is worth that of minimum 2 3rd round picks, as we have seen based on past drafts where teams move down 3-4 picks in the late 1st/early 2nd and the compensation for doing so is a 3rd round pick more or less. That right there covers the salary retained plus the microscopic gap in trade values of Mrazek and Dreiger, which might exist slightly based on Dreiger outplaying Mrazek a tad this year despite Mrazek being better the year(s) prior and being more established. To add a bit extra value going Seattle’s way, the Leafs give up Joseph Duszak, a gamble for Seattle to take on the very talented offensive defenceman. Duszak could breakout or might flounder out; regardless, it’s worthwhile for Seattle to try a Flyer on him while they’re in the position they are.

2023 7th rounder is a conditional pick. If Duszak scores 25 or more points the next year, it upgrades to a 2023 or 2024 3rd round pick (Seattles choice of year and pick, if they have multiple 3rds, on draft day)