Severson based on Muzzin trade

Sounds about right. Although it’s more of Muzzin deal + Holl. Leafs could also keep Holl and send Knies instead of Hirvonen.

leafs arnt giving up Niemela (or Robertson or Knies or Amirov) for Severson. Muzzin didnt get a prospect near their level

Los Angeles didn't retain on Muzzin so that would increase the value that New Jersey would get.

I also highly doubt that Niemela is available. Unless he's having commitment issues in coming over, Toronto isn't gonna look to deal their top RHD prospect when that's a position they've been looking to fill for years.

Based on Dubas' press conference it seems like he doesn't wanna move the 2022 1st at all so I'd take that off the table from the start - it seems like a non starter completely. Seravalli also noted that Amirov and Knies could be moved instead of the 1st round pick. Basing a deal off of the Muzzin return is likely the comparable to use, just not directly since there won't be a 1st involved (also a 0% chance that Severson is worth a top prospect + a 1st round pick to begin with)

I'd think it'd be around a deal like this:

Devils get:
Rodion Amirov
Travis Dermott (more likely than Holl to be moved)
2022 2nd round pick
2023 conditional 3rd round pick (becomes higher pick based on Toronto's success in playoffs

Leafs get:
Damon Severson
Nathan Bastian

Amirov takes the value of the 1st in the Muzzin deal but Amirov would have slightly more value than that. Dermott takes the place of Durzi as both are likely to be bottom 4 defenceman and have the same value range. The 2nd would be the value of Grundstrom who was a B prospect in Toronto's system at the time of the deal, and then New Jersey is compensated with a 3rd round pick for Bastian as he can be added depth for the Leafs playoff run

Grundstrom, Durzi were both top-5 prospects in a Leafs prospect pool that was more highly regarded than it is today. So this is a hard claim to make.

Way too much. You won't get Knies or Niemela. Robertson and a 1st is enough