LIVIN ON A PRAYER
Rejoint: oct. 2017
Messages: 6,492
Mentions "j'aime": 6,467
There are things here I don't immediately agree with, and a couple things you seem to be mistaken about. I'll assume that you literally mean what the state of the Oilers is likely to be in 2 seasons' time:
Maksimov is likely still going to be breaking through the AHL by the conclusion of the 2022 season. Based strictly off the Bakersfield depth chart - and knowing that there are AHL-only contracts that need to be honoured - he will see at most 4th-line icetime at 5v5 and MIGHT see some PP2 time. Next year will hopefully feature Maksimov in a larger role in the AHL, but the extent to how he climbs in the minors will solely depend on whether or not his footspeed and sense grows with his progression through professional hockey. Worst-case scenario he becomes a top-9 forward in the AHL with powerplay specialization. Best case scenario he finds himself on the top line having learned to keep his pace up and use his size and shot to their full potential. Tracking that development before he's played any professional games removes the science and statistics from the equation. It's wild speculation at that point. Could he succeed alongside McDavid and Draisaitl? It's a possibility, but making a call on where players picked from Canadian major junior outside of the top-100 in any draft this early is borderline impossible. We wait.
Minor detail here, but Lavoie is not going to be an NHL center; his power-forward playstyle and lack of quick boots will push him into developing as a winger. This isn't necessarily a problem, but to me it's suggesting that you have an unfamiliarity with the Oilers' system. A few other things go on to suggest this too, but I do agree that in two years' time, Lavoie could be playing as the #3RW and possibly pushing himself into the top-6. Penciling Yamamoto in as a top-6 winger however, especially when he hasn't shown incredibly well at the AHL-level and is coming off of what sounds like a significant wrist injury is naive at best. This year will make or break Yamamoto as a prospect in my eyes. If he finds that extra gear and regains the offensive flair he had in the WHL, then sky's the limit. If not, his injury history and lesser AHL production suggests that a trade that maximizes his remaining value should take place.
Neither Khaira or Bear should be full-time NHL players: Bear lacks a strong enough game away from the puck and has had his development shunted by injuries, leaving him much more suited to a #7 PP specialist role. Khiara has shown to be little more than an average 4th-line forward but doesn't have the underlying numbers to suggest that he's genuinely beneficial to have in a team's bottom-6. Just because the Oilers use him as a center or on their penalty kill (which was bad) does not mean he's actually a quality NHLer. He's mildly overpaid, which probably doesn't matter for the duration of his contract, but would otherwise affect a cap-stressed team. I'm also in the camp that's not super high on Marody (I swear I'm not a pessimist, I've just been burned by this team a lot in the past), and figure his ceiling is probably a skilled #4RW that can step into a special teams role (due to injuries) without sinking the performance of the special teams unit he's on. Again, it's a footspeed issue, but also factors his age a bit: he's an older prospect and has probably peaked in terms of what we're going to see from him, which leads to NHL translation issues.
I don't think Koskinen will be with the team after this season: I have zero faith in his abilities and would not be shocked to see Holland move to buy him out in favour of a replacement. The UFA market is incredibly shallow so I would expect a trade to address issues between the pipes. I haven't seen enough of Starrett to be convinced in his abilities either, but he has the benefit of having time to prove himself. I firmly believe that Nugent-Hopkins and Nurse will be traded between the deadline and draft: if Holland's committed to rebuilding this team right, they're 2 of 3 valuable, movable, and expendable assets this team currently has (Larsson is the 3rd). Getting any substantial picks or prospects to build a new core around begets those two being traded. I think Klefbom's contract and the need to have at least one NHL defender on next years' roster keeps him around long term.
Don't take what I've dumped here too hard. Projecting any roster in 2 years is insanely difficult and development is never a linear process. Half the names I've mentioned here could quickly turn around and prove me wrong, or we could all be wrong about names that we thought were sure-fire bets. Just me applying what I've seen both from the player in question and historically and what I've contextualized from data and my observations. A high 1st- and 2nd Round Pick in this upcoming draft does a projection like this wonders.